Don't be fooled just because today is Wednesday; the market atmosphere has already been ignited by a set of yet-to-be-released data points — the U.S. June retail sales month-on-month growth is about to be announced tonight, and the entire market is holding its breath in anticipation.
This set of consumption data is not only an intuitive measure of the 'resilience' of the U.S. economy, but it may also become a key piece of the puzzle affecting whether the Fed will cut rates in September. Moreover, the crypto market may also see an escalation in emotional fluctuations due to this change in macro signals.
Last month's weakness has been priced in, and this time the market is betting on the 'strength of the rebound.'
First, let's briefly review the background: In May, the retail sales month-on-month growth was only 0.1%, causing the market to panic. Weak consumption has directly intensified concerns about the slowdown of the U.S. economy. By June, market consensus began to expect a rebound, with the current mainstream expectation at 0.5%, which is quite significant.
There are several key points behind this that must be mentioned:
Weakening inflation has become a consensus, with CPI and PPI falling below expectations for several months, leading to a temporary easing of the Fed's anti-inflation efforts.
With rising expectations for rate cuts and news circulating about Powell possibly being replaced, the 'uncertainty' in monetary policy is rapidly amplifying.
Against this backdrop, tonight's data will serve as a balancing calibration for the 'strong economy vs weak inflation' situation.
Why is the crypto market tense?
The retail sales figures reflect the 'willingness to spend' of the American public, which directly influences whether the 'economy is hot or not.' Ultimately, whether the Fed should cut rates depends on whether this system can still function.
What the crypto market fears most is a 'sudden change' in macro expectations:
If the data is below expectations, it indicates that pressure for economic slowdown continues to exist, and expectations for rate cuts are likely to continue to rise, potentially enhancing risk appetite.
If the data rebounds strongly, the current market bet on the logic of 'rate cuts starting in September' may face a shock, and risk assets could experience short-term adjustment risks.
This is what we often refer to as 'expectation difference trading'; it's not about looking at the absolute value of the data, but rather the misalignment between it and market psychology. Emotional fluctuations do not equal directional confirmation, so don't treat your account as a voting machine. The reason data-driven markets are called 'macro landmines' is that they often ignite emotional fluctuations in a very short time, causing violent market turbulence. However, it is particularly important to emphasize one point: (Emotion is temporary, direction is a process, and structure is fundamental.)
For participants in the crypto market, macro data like retail sales acts more like a 'catalyst' that drives changes in expectations. It won't directly determine the long-term price trends of BTC or ETH, but it will indeed impact market sentiment pricing in the short term. Tonight, the market may react violently. Rather than 'gambling' on the data, it's better to use this moment as an observation window to see the market's reaction to the Fed's next policy path.
Don't trade with emotions, and don't bet your account on the Federal Reserve's thought processes. Macroeconomic changes are part of the market's rhythm, but they should not be the sole reason for decision-making.
