Trump is just playing tricks: He previously hinted that he might fire Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, causing widespread anxiety. What happened in the end? He turned around and denied it, saying he never wrote any dismissal letter. Isn't this just a feint to scare people?

Market reactions are very real: Everyone is basically betting that in July, the Federal Reserve will definitely remain passive and keep interest rates unchanged, with a probability of over 95%! Lowering rates? Don't even think about it, the chance is less than 5%. But by September, the winds changed. The market believes there is a 99% chance that the Federal Reserve will start lowering rates, at most by 0.25%. The probability of staying put has suddenly dropped to only about 30%.

Trump is crazy about Powell: He has recently started criticizing Powell again, saying he is incapable, always slow and out of sync, ‘a beat behind’! He also said that although Powell won't be moved in the next eight months, after this term is over, he will definitely replace him with someone from his own circle, someone ‘capable’ and ‘understanding’.

It's like he almost wants to write ‘I want someone obedient’ on his forehead: This is just too obvious! He clearly stated that he wants someone who can listen to him and advocates for low interest rates to run the Federal Reserve. He even directly mentioned wanting to bring Hassett in to work. In other words, he is not firing Powell now purely due to timing or procedural difficulties, but his attitude is clear: I don’t like what Powell is doing! What I want is a puppet chairman who can help me unleash monetary stimulus and boost the economy.

To summarize my point: Trump's operation here, while verbally saying ‘not firing, not firing’, is in fact constantly putting pressure on Powell, making his disdain and pressure very clear. His ultimate goal is to have someone who can align with his thoughts and help him implement loose monetary policy sit in the top position of the Federal Reserve. This person is very shrewd, first testing the waters and then denying to stabilize the situation, but his true intentions are undisguised—he wants to replace Powell to push his low interest rate policy. Powell? In his eyes, he is just an uncooperative tool, and no matter how well he performs, he lives like a piece of fake news!

Rather than waiting on the sidelines, why not join the K-line judge and burn together! #特朗普施压鲍威尔