Core Time Window and Catalytic Events
1. Short-term Opportunity (July-August 2025)
– Event: SEC's decision window on Solana ETF (late July - August), Kraken xStocks tokenized stocks go live on Solana
– Strategy:
• If the price retraces to the 150−155 range (-10% drop), build a position in batches 30%, set stop-loss below $140
• If it breaks out with volume
180 and daily closing stabilizes, chase growth 10200
2. Mid-term Layout (Q4 2025)
– Event: FireDancer Mainnet Launch (expected October-November), Solana Mobile Seeker smartphone delivery
– Strategy:
• The 120−130 range is a 'golden pit', can allocate 50% of the main position, corresponding to a safe margin with TVL rising to over $9 billion.
• Speculate on institutional FOMO market after ETF approval, target 250−300
3. Long-term Value (2026-2030)
– Drivers: Maturity of DePIN physical facility networks, widespread AI agents, compliance settlement layer implementation
– Strategy:
⚖️ Risk-Reward Ratio Assessment
Risk Control and Position Management
1. Single Trade Risk ≤2%: Control the stop-loss amount of each trade within 2% of total account funds
2. Phased Positioning:
– Short-term: 10-20% position, target 180−200 (liquidate before August)
– Mid-term: 30-50% position, hold until 2025 Q4 upgrade realization
– Long-term: 20% position, hold through volatility until the ecological outbreak period in 2030
3. Hedging Tools:
– Buy SOL put options (strike price $140, expiration end of September) to hedge ETF approval risk
– Configuration ETH/BTC Diversified Public Chain Competition Risk
$$$SOL Summary: Operational Roadmap
1. Immediate Action:
– Place an order to buy the first tier 10% at $150.50 (50-day moving average)
– Set a stop-loss order at $140.00 (above the lower Bollinger Band)
2. Waiting for Catalysts:
– If ETF news is optimistic in late July, chase the second tier 10% after breaking through $180
– If it retraces to $130 in August, initiate the third tier 20% bottom fishing
3. Long-term Betting:
– Below $100 is considered a once-in-a-decade opportunity, reserve funds can be heavily invested
Dynamic Tracking Tool:
• Technical Indicators: TradingView SOL/USDT
• On-chain Data: Solana Compass Validator Map
• Regulatory Progress: SEC Official Announcement Database
Current price of $170 is in a neutral range, it is recommended to keep 50% cash and wait for a better entry point; strict discipline is required to capture the next parabolic market.
