Tonight's vote presses the start button on the fate of the cryptocurrency space.
Friends, tonight is destined to be sleepless.
This is not because the market is hot; rather, the crypto market is being pulled into a vortex of power and capital by an invisible hand.
At 00:20 on July 17, Beijing time, the US Congress will hold a crucial vote on a heavyweight bill—the GENIUS bill. Its passage could directly determine whether Bitcoin rises to $150,000 or re-tests the $100,000 line in the coming months.
This is a financial-level **'nuclear explosion-level event'**, not a market trend that can be explained by technical analysis, but a typical 'macro-driven + political pricing' situation.
A financial war packaged with crypto assets.
Many still think the GENIUS bill is for regulation; in reality, this is a blatant geopolitical economic game. On the surface, it appears to protect users and regulate the market, but in fact, the US government is trying to wrap its debt in the stablecoin system as 'digital US debt' and then sell it to global users.
The most critical point in the bill is that it mandates stablecoin issuers to hold '100% cash or short-term US debt' as reserves. This sounds like 'anchoring', but the actual effect is to create an on-chain absorption channel for US debt, aiming to fill the gap left by traditional buyers (such as China and Japan) continuously reducing their holdings.
In short, the US government is preparing to use stablecoins to export debt to global on-chain users. This is not regulation; this is taxation.
Stablecoins are not USDT; they are the 'on-chain treasury'.
You may not have noticed: every time Tether's market share rises by 1%, US debt yields drop by 3-4 basis points. This indicates that the more on-chain funds there are, the easier it is for the US Treasury.
When Amazon and Walmart also start issuing coins and join the stablecoin ecosystem, the sales of US debt, financial settlements, and consumer payments will gradually migrate on-chain. But don't be misled by the term 'blockchain'; this is not a victory for decentralization, but the grassroots version of the 'digital dollar' is taking shape.
In this structure, you are not a participant but an involuntary debt bearer—what you hold is not 'stablecoins' but the digital form of US debt, 'packaged debt'.
Is Trump a hero, or the biggest market controller?
Don't be fooled by appearances. Trump's vocal support for crypto is not due to a belief in free markets but because his family foundation is preparing to launch its own stablecoin, USD1.
Once the GENIUS bill is implemented, the entire stablecoin market will be regulated, the licensing system will be established, and who will set the new rules? Clearly not us retail investors, but the interest groups that have already laid out their strategies.
The bill also includes a provision prohibiting the Federal Reserve from issuing digital dollars (CBDC), which means 'official stablecoins' are completely out, and the grassroots crypto solutions from Trump's faction will become the dominant force.
This is not a belief; it's a blatant capital blockade war, a 'stablecoin coup' achieved through a combination of technology and regulations.
Once passed, the crypto market will undergo a structural revaluation.
The significance of the passage of the GENIUS bill is not just about price increases, but the entire compliance framework and financial ecology of the sector will be rewritten.
Bitcoin and Ethereum will be officially recognized as 'non-securities', completely shaking off the SEC.
Coinbase will obtain dual licenses, becoming the Wall Street of the chain + global payment system.
Uniswap and other DeFi protocols will be legalized, and developers will no longer face criminal risks.
BlackRock and Goldman Sachs can custody BTC and use it for collateral loans, releasing massive liquidity.
Privacy coins and hardware wallets will receive legal protection, and anti-CBDC will become a compliance logic.
This is not just a market boost; it is a reset of the rules and a complete reconstruction of the relationship between decentralized finance and the traditional system.
Operational strategy: Tonight is the critical point for betting on the future.
Voting officially starts tonight at 00:20 Beijing time.
If the bill passes: mainstream coins will activate instantly, and BTC and ETH are expected to surge together.
If the bill is defeated: short-term panic will erupt, short strategies will be adapted, and it's advisable to pay attention to VIX tokens or related leveraged short products.
From a medium-term perspective: even if it fails, the Democratic version of the bill is being prepared, and structural opportunities will still exist in the future.
Summary of Xiao Chen's viewpoints:
Stop using technical analysis to view this market. The current crypto market is not driven by technology or emotional trading, but by a rearrangement of the global financial order.
GENIUS is not a regulatory bill; it is America's 'digital version of the Marshall Plan', a form of soft taxation, a plan to link the global economy with USDT.
Trump is not the savior; he is the biggest market controller. He has wagered his political chips just to turn the stablecoin market into his financial weapon.
You need to understand: true crypto investment has never been about precision, but about comprehension. Tonight is an opportunity to take a side.
Choose the wrong side, and you're just a chain-side retail investor; choose the right side, and you're a profit harvester under the new rules.
Follow Xiao Chen; I'll help you analyze the logic of the next round of 'political trends'!
