$$SOL

Key support and resistance levels in technical analysis

Core time window and catalytic events

1. Short-term opportunity (July-August 2025)

– Event: SEC's decision window on Solana ETF (late July-August), Kraken xStocks tokenized stocks launch on Solana

– Strategy:

• If the price retraces to the 150-155 range (-10% drop), build a position in batches of 30%, with a stop loss set below $140

• If the volume breaks through

180 and daily closing stabilizes, chase up to 10200


2. Mid-term layout (Q4 2025)

– Event: FireDancer mainnet launch (expected October-November), Solana Mobile Seeker phone shipment

– Strategy:

• The range of 120-130 is the 'golden pit', can allocate 50% of the main position, corresponding to a safety margin as TVL rebounds to over $9 billion

• Speculating on institutional FOMO after ETF approval, target 250-300


3. Long-term value (2026-2030)

– Drivers: Maturation of DePIN physical infrastructure network, proliferation of AI agents, implementation of compliance clearing layers

– Strategy:

⚖️ Risk-reward ratio assessment



Risk control and position management

1. Single transaction risk ≤2%: Each trade's stop loss is controlled within 2% of the total account funds

2. Positioning in stages:

– Short-term: 10-20% position, target 180-200 (liquidate before August)

– Mid-line: 30-50% position, hold until the 2025 Q4 upgrade is realized

– Long-term: 20% position, hold until the ecological explosion period in 2030, ignoring volatility


3. Hedging tools:

– Buy SOL put options (strike price $140, expiration at the end of September) to hedge ETF approval risk

– Allocate ETH/BTC to diversify risks from public chain competition


$$$SOL Summary: Operation roadmap

1. Immediate action:

– Place an order to buy the first tranche of 10% at $150.50 (50-day moving average)

– Set stop loss order at $140.00 (above the lower Bollinger Band)


2. Awaiting catalyst:

– If ETF news is optimistic in late July, chase the second tranche of 10% after breaking $180

– If it retraces to $130 in August, start the third phase with 20% bottom fishing


3. Long-term bet:

– Below $100 is seen as a once-in-a-decade opportunity, can use reserve funds for heavy investment



Dynamic tracking tool:

• Technical indicators: TradingView SOL/USDT

• On-chain data: Solana Compass validator map

• Regulatory progress: SEC official announcement database


Current price at $170 is in a neutral range, recommend keeping 50% cash to wait for a better entry point, strict discipline is needed to capture the next parabolic market.