The market is like a weather forecast; the cooling PPI suggests inflation is "subsiding," but the crypto market is as hot as midsummer—within the alternating heat and cold lies the wealth code for the second half of the year.
1. U.S. PPI Data: Inflation brakes, is there hope for a rate cut in September?
June PPI year-on-year at 2.3% (expected 2.5%), monthly rate drops to zero, indicating upstream production costs are stagnant. This data gives the Federal Reserve an out: won't cut rates in September? Business owners and consumers will be furious! However, the CEO of Bank of America poured cold water on this, saying "don't expect rate cuts before next year". In my view, Wall Street and the Fed are still playing 'wolf is coming,' but the market has already bet on easing.
Case Comparison:
When PPI surged last year, Bitcoin was at $27,000; now that PPI has fallen, BTC has risen to $60,000, indicating that funds have long voted with their feet—cooling inflation = rising liquidity expectations = the crypto market is quietly happy.
2. Crypto trading volume surges: Solana is going crazy.
Last week, the total chain trading broke the record with 342 million transactions, with Solana accounting for 60% (209 million transactions). It's like the morning rush hour on the Beijing subway, with ETH being the overcrowded Line 1, while Solana is the newly opened Line 12—cheap and fast. However, be aware that most transactions involve meme coins and low-quality tokens, indicating that retail investors' FOMO sentiment has returned.
Personal Opinion:
The Base chain is rising rapidly (weekly trading exceeds 10 million transactions), backed by Coinbase. The next hot point may be "compliant meme coins," and the chain of exchanges will be the new battlefield for retail investors.
3. U.S. crypto legislation: Trump's "money ability" breakthrough.
The deadlock in the House of Representatives is like a palace drama, with the Republicans just 4 votes short of passing the (Clarity Bill). Trump's maneuver is clever: using the "anti-CBDC bill" as bait to gain support, clearly telling voters: "Vote for me, and I'll give you a crypto tax haven!"
Key Details:
If the stablecoin bill passes, it can be directly sent for the president's signature. Now it's a gamble on how much the crypto lobbying group can spend to influence both parties before the November elections.
4. SEC's delay tactics: Bitwise ETF will be waiting forever.
The SEC has postponed the approval of the Bitwise Bitcoin/Ethereum ETF until September 2025, citing "security concerns" on the surface, but actually waiting for political winds to shift. However, Matrixport revealed that Ethereum's recent 17% surge was driven by Asian funds, while the U.S. SEC is blocking approvals, Asian whales have quietly started accumulating.
Data Highlights:
Ethereum contributed 94% of its gains during Asian trading hours, indicating that as U.S. regulations tighten, funds are increasingly flowing to Hong Kong/Singapore.
5. EU tariff war: 30% of GDP impact.
If the U.S.-EU tariff war escalates, the Eurozone's GDP could be cut by 0.6%. However, the French Foreign Trade Bank says "there is still hope," especially since German car manufacturers are pleading for reconciliation. This is a hidden positive for the crypto market—demand for safe-haven assets + companies shifting cross-border settlements to stablecoins.
The current market is like a pressure cooker: the PPI pressure relief valve has been opened, and the crypto legislation powder keg is about to explode, with Asian funds flowing in secretly. Keep an eye on three signals:
① If Trump shares the "crypto donation address," chase after it immediately;
② A sudden drop in Gas on the Solana chain may indicate a meme coin crash is imminent;
③ If the EU's tariff retaliation list includes "chips," quickly buy into AI + blockchain projects.
