$3423 life-and-death battle! The night before ETH's surge: the Bollinger Band shows a death signal, while institutions buy fiercely for $1.9 billion!

The cryptocurrency world is turbulent, and Ethereum (ETH) stands again at a crossroads of fate! Current price is $3337, last night's peak was $3423, while the bizarre movement of the lower Bollinger Band is hinting at an impending shocking reversal! Will it break through the historical high or fall into the abyss? This article combines technical death signals and heavy news to reveal the shocking script for ETH's future!

1. Technical death signal: the deadly temptation of the lower Bollinger Band

  1. Bollinger Band expansion, death signal emerging
    Currently, the ETH price is closely following the upper Bollinger Band, but the width of the Bollinger Band continues to expand, indicating a surge in market volatility! More critically, the price has repeatedly tested the support of the lower band before bouncing back, forming a 'fake breakout' trap. Historical data shows that such formations often accompany5%-8% short-term plummets!

  2. Trading volume trap: the main force secretly accumulates
    On the surface, ETH's recent trading volume has moderately increased, but looking closely at the capital flow:retail investors have a net outflow of over $300 million, while institutions quietly bought $1.9 billion through ETF channels! This divergence of 'retail fleeing, institutions bottoming out' is strikingly similar to BTC's behavior before breaking through $69,000 in 2023!

  3. Key resistance level: the devil's threshold at $3423
    $3423 is not only the annual high but also thelong-term downtrend resistance level for ETH since the 2021 bull market! If it cannot break through before July 20, the price is likely to retrace to the support level of $2958, with a decline of over 11%!

2. News bomb: institutions buy fiercely for $1.9 billion, SEC policy relaxation!

  1. BlackRock/Fidelity's massive buying, wave of ETF funds arrives
    The world's largest asset management company, BlackRock, recently through ETH spot ETFincreased its holdings by 832,000 ETH, worth over 2.7 billion RMB! Fidelity, Grayscale, and other institutions are following closely, with institutional holdings accounting for 67%. Historical patterns show that when institutional holdings exceed 50%,the mid-term increase of ETH exceeds 200%!

  2. Shanghai upgrade side effects: staking withdrawals turn into a benefit
    Although the Shanghai upgrade allows withdrawals of staked ETH, platforms like Lido and Coinbase show:withdrawal volume accounts for only 12% of the stock, while new staking funds have surged by 60%! Staking interest rate at 3.09% + rising coin prices creates a 'Davis double play'!

  3. SEC policy relaxation, regulatory winter ends
    The SEC's approval process for Ethereum ETFs enters the final stage, while the Shanghai State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission in China rarely states:to explore the application of blockchain in cross-border trade and supply chain finance! Policy bottom + market bottom resonance, ETH is replicating the frenzied market before BTC's halving in 2020!

3. Life-and-death battle script: 72-hour reversal window opens!

  1. Bullish scenario: break through $3423, aim for $4000

    • Conditions: stabilize above $3423 before July 20, trading volume exceeds 15 million pieces/day.

    • Catalyst: institutional ETF continuous buying + Fed rate cut expectations heat up.

    • Target price: $4000-$4200 (resistance level is the previous high of $4877).

  2. Bearish scenario: break below $2958, see $2800

    • Conditions: unable to break through before July 20, and MACD death cross confirmation.

    • Risk points: a crash in competitors like Solana triggers capital flight, or the SEC suddenly tightens policy.

    • Bottom hunting level: $2700-$2800 (historical strong support zone).

4. Retail Survival Guide: Three-step strategy

  1. Spot players: gradually build positions below $3300, stop-loss below $2958, increase positions above $3423.

  2. Contract players: lightly try to go long around $3400, set stop-loss at $3250, target looks at $3800.

  3. Long-term holders: participate in ETH staking, annual yield 3% + rising coin prices, hedge against short-term volatility.


ETH is currently in an extreme confrontation between technical and news factors! Will it break through the historical high and start a bull market, or will it fake a breakout and then plummet? The answer will be revealed within 72 hours! Remember: a bull market is always born out of doubt, rises in hesitation, and dies in madness! At this moment, are you ready to place your bets?

Do you think the second brother can break through 3500 points today? Feel free to comment.

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