#长期持有策略 #长期持有策略

Underlying Logic: Scarcity-Driven Value Storage Paradigm

1. Absolute Deflationary Mechanism

- The fixed cap design of 21 million coins makes Bitcoin the first verifiably scarce digital asset in human history. As of July 2025, long-term holders have locked 74% of the circulating supply, and exchange balances have dropped to a five-year low, with the actual circulating supply being less than 37%.

- Compared to gold's annual inflation rate of 1.5%, Bitcoin maintains a **deflationary rate decreasing model until 2140, with new supply accounting for only 0.9% of the existing supply after the block reward halving in 2025.

2. Sovereign-Level Adoption Wave

- Following El Salvador's national reserve practice, over 5 governments are secretly establishing Bitcoin strategic reserves.

- Corporate holdings account for 5% of Bitcoin's total supply, and in June 2025 alone, 250 companies increased their holdings by 68,000 BTC (worth over $8 billion).

I estimate that by 2026, BTC will reach $200,000 per coin.