With Grayscale's continued feeding of more than 10,000 Bitcoins every day, the market has been a bit cold these days. As of writing this article, the Fear & Greed Index is around 48. Although my personal body temperature has been over 40 degrees Celsius these days, my little heat is like a spark in the vast universe, which has no effect on the market. The most direct manifestation is just that this official account has been suspended for a few days.

Although the official account has been suspended for a few days, I took a look at the background today and found that there are still dozens of new friends following 'Hua Li Hua Wai' every day. It seems that everyone's enthusiasm for learning has not decreased too much.

These days, friends in several groups can't help but ask me in private messages what I think of the market outlook and how much more Bitcoin can fall? Will it fall below 30,000? To be honest, I don't know the answer to this question, because the market is unpredictable and unknowable. Moreover, I actually said in the group a few days ago that if this round of Bitcoin's correction can really reach the level of 38,000, then you can just enter in batches. Moreover, didn't some partners also say categorically that they would buy as long as Bitcoin fell below 40,000 again? Why are they shrinking back now that it has fallen to 38,000!

In terms of trading, no one can always buy at the lowest point and sell at the highest point. As ordinary investors, our most reasonable strategy is to buy Bitcoin in batches and hold it as long as the price reaches your psychological price, it's that simple.

Because there have been a lot of messages in the background of the official account recently, I quickly swiped through the messages again today and found that a friend left a message yesterday and asked: I am reading (Blockchain Thinking Advancement), but there are some contents in this e-book that I still feel that I don't understand, because I am a pure novice, and asked if I can consider publishing a more basic e-book or a video collection in the future, such as teaching pure novices how to use exchanges, how to trade, how to withdraw and deposit money, and how to use crypto wallets. This is the most specific operation and knowledge.

I know that such questions may be the voice and needs of many pure novices, but my unified answer here is: I will not do this and do not want to do it.

First, although individual matters may not be explicitly illegal under the laws of some countries, individual behaviors are currently prohibited in many countries, and we should strictly abide by both laws and regulations.

Second, especially withdrawals and deposits are sensitive topics among sensitive behaviors, and I haven't done any withdrawals or deposits for more than two years. I don't know about this now.

Third, as for videos, I have no plans to make any videos (short videos, live broadcasts, recorded videos) because I personally prefer the traditional text and image presentation format, which can be easily organized and searched like a book. Therefore, I will not spend extra time and energy to make short videos just to pursue trends and more traffic. Similarly, I have no plans to make audio programs (such as Himalaya) or open any short content platforms (such as Weibo, Twitter, etc.).

Fourth, in fact, you don't need to ask people about some basic things right away. For example, the official website help center of the exchange has a complete set of high-quality detailed video tutorials on trading operations. You can also basically find relevant text and video information on Google next door.

Now that we've finished the self-protection statement, let's officially get into today's topic. Today, I will continue to share from the perspective of a pure novice to see what choices a novice can have after entering the crypto field.

Although this topic has been mentioned and discussed many times in the previous hundreds of articles on the official account, considering many new followers of 'Hua Li Hua Wai', I cannot directly ask them to read all the past hundreds of articles in one go, nor can I ask them to read my e-book in one go, because this is not realistic, and probably few people will have this patience, so re-sorting from time to time has become a better way. For me, this is also a process of continuous improvement and thinking. Of course, today we will only publish content that can be said, and I will actively filter out and not discuss content that is too sensitive.

For many newcomers, entering this field is more about making money (and making big money), such as some people who have heard stories of getting rich overnight here, and some who are envious of the contract orders posted by various "teachers"... and so on.

After entering this field, I have categorized the ways newcomers can participate into three main categories: spot trading, participating in airdrops, and earning interest by depositing coins.

1. Spot Trading

There are currently three main ways to trade on the spot market: centralized exchanges (CEX), decentralized exchanges (DEX), and over-the-counter (OTC) trading. Here, we only discuss the first two.

For newcomers, because the operation of DEX requires the use of crypto wallets, but the use of crypto wallets may require a learning and adaptation process for pure novices, so most novices will choose to conduct spot trading operations through CEX.

But it is precisely because you are a pure novice that it is easy for newcomers to be brought into various small exchanges or even fake exchanges after entering the field, and may eventually encounter fraud and lose all their principal. Therefore, I only recommend that you use the two top CEXs.

In terms of specific operations, you must first have risk awareness. I always say that the most important thing in this field is to protect your principal and not touch what you don't understand. Moreover, from an investment perspective, everyone has different risk preferences and risk management abilities, and should customize their own investment strategies. Different capital sizes require different investment and thinking perspectives. Several million dollars is one way to play, and several tens of thousands of dollars is another way.

If your goal is clear, such as achieving a 3-5x return in a cycle, then:

You just need to choose between BTC/ETH, which is the simplest and least error-prone investment path. Specifically, stick to dollar-cost averaging into Bitcoin and Ether in a bear market, and sell in batches in a bull market, a cycle of 3-5x is stable and secure, and you don't need to spend too much time and energy. This is what many old retail investors do, and it is also what I do.

This reminds me again that new people often leave me strange questions in the background of the official account, such as asking me: Do you buy all the projects you mention in your articles?

Let's not talk too far, just in the past year, the projects I mentioned in my articles are not 1000, at least 800, right? But I didn't buy them, because I know my goals and targets very well. It's like you're a car blogger, do you have to buy all the cars on the market and park them downstairs? In fact, it's enough to park a few that you think are the best, and this doesn't affect you from continuing to study other cars, who made you a car enthusiast! In any financial field, there will definitely be different groups of people, such as investors, speculators, enthusiasts, and pure gamblers. The crypto field is no exception, so you need to figure out your own positioning first.

And if your goal is relatively large, hoping to have a 10x or 8x return, then:

Following the principle of "don't touch what you don't understand," you need to spend your own time and energy to do project research and understand the project. I remember saying something in the group chat before, saying that trading is sometimes similar to dating. You have to spend your energy to pursue and figure out the girl you like, instead of letting others pursue her for you, or getting married immediately after someone recommends a stranger to you.

Here, my advice remains the same: use 50% of your portfolio to dollar-cost average into Bitcoin and Ether, and use the remaining portfolio to look for blue-chip coins and discover potential new projects. If you are a confident technical analyst, you may be able to get good returns by just focusing on the top 30 coins and swing trading. If you are a patient researcher, do more research and discover some potential new projects, and with your patience and understanding of narratives, you may also get good returns in the bull market.

But sometimes you may find an interesting phenomenon: you've been swing trading for the past two years and feel good about yourself, but when you look at the overall return rate, it's not as good as an old retail investor who only knows how to hoard Bitcoin!

And if you don't know anything and don't understand anything, and you think that 10x is not your goal, you want 100x or 1000x directly, then:

First, I suggest you pour a large bucket of ice water over your head. If you still firmly want to buy 100x or 1000x coins and get rich overnight after pouring the water, then I... suggest you pour another bucket.

Of course, since there are ready-made retail investors, there will definitely be ready-made scams, and even some thoughtful "teachers" will directly send you 100x wealth passwords to take you to buy meme coins and get rich in reality.

But my suggestion is still, don't base your dream of getting rich on others (especially strangers). Investment requires self-learning, improvement, and responsibility. If you casually ask others (even strangers) what coin to buy, and they casually tell you a 100x or 1000x password, and then you buy it and actually sell it all at the highest point, achieving financial freedom. This wouldn't even happen in a TV series!

Anyway, I definitely won't play with meme coins myself, no matter how tempting it is, and I've even blocked a few meme coin project teams who said they wanted to cooperate with me to make a fortune. This isn't to say I'm virtuous, but I'm very aware of the risks involved, and people should have basic principles. Although I can't control those who have no principles, I can control myself to have principles. Also, I don't want to spend too much time and energy (and don't have the energy) doing Gamble things. I'd rather write or listen to novels than spend my energy on this. My investment strategy is one word: steady, and my investment method is also one word: hoard. I don't do anything that doesn't fit my investment strategy.

Moreover, I have always advised newcomers not to play with meme coins, but it seems unrealistic to advise others to stay away from meme coins, after all, this thing pins the dreams of too many novices to get rich. So as someone who has been there, I have also changed my thinking. It's your own business if you want to play, and if you really can't help but want to play, then just play with a few hundred dollars, and at the same time have a mindset of going to zero, and summarize the experience and lessons of losing money or going to zero. Sometimes, only real failures can make a person really grow.