Hong Kong has finally welcomed the Bitcoin ETF! Can retail investors really profit from it this time?
On July 18, the Pandu Bitcoin ETF will be listed in Hong Kong, becoming the first of its kind in 2025! As soon as this news broke, the crypto community erupted: some called it the "bull market accelerator", while others watched coldly, saying "it's just another way to harvest retail investors". However, experienced players understand that the ETF is a double-edged sword; it can attract large institutional money but can also pierce retail wallets!
ETF listing: Hong Kong's "crypto coming of age ceremony", or a trap set by the main force?
This time, the approval of the Pandu ETF revolves around two core issues:
Legal endorsement: Bitcoin is officially included in the traditional financial system, allowing retail investors in Hong Kong to invest legally without needing to circumvent regulations.
Fund channel: Institutional funds can enter through the ETF curve, with an expected scale exceeding 5 billion HKD on the first day!
Historical case reference: On the first day of the Bitcoin ETF launch in the US in 2024, Bitcoin surged by 8%, but three days later, it retraced 15% due to profit-taking! Will Hong Kong repeat the "rise then fall" script this time?
If you have a different opinion, feel free to leave a comment for discussion.
Martial arts perspective: Short-term bullish, long-term bearish! But 90% of people will lose in the "three misunderstandings".
On the surface, the ETF lowers the barrier to entry and attracts new funds.
However, it hides three major traps:
Misunderstanding 1: Thinking ETF = guaranteed profit. In reality, the net value of the ETF tracks Bitcoin's spot price; if the price drops by 10%, the ETF will drop by 10% as well!
Misunderstanding 2: Ignoring premium risk. The Hong Kong ETF may experience a premium due to initial supply shortages, chasing high prices may lead to losses!
Misunderstanding 3: Ignoring the main force's tactics. Before the ETF listing, the main force may pump the price to attract retail investors, and after listing, they may sell off!
Real case: Fan Lao Li heard the news last week about the "ETF good news", invested 200,000 in Bitcoin, and as a result, the price dropped from 72,000 to 68,000, losing 40,000 in three days! He cried: "Where's the promised good news?" Martial arts coldly laughed: The market always moves against retail investors; you think you are buying the dip, but in fact, you're catching the knife from the main force!
Finally, let me ask: Will you be the "bag holder" of the ETF, or the harvester?
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