Important Resistance (Target Price):
Historical local peaks: If ETH has broken the recent peak, that peak will be the next resistance if the price returns to retest.
Major psychological level: With BTC surpassing 120k, ETH may be approaching or has surpassed important psychological milestones like 4,500 USD, 5,000 USD (if not yet reached), or targeting further milestones like 5,500 USD, 6,000 USD if there is strong momentum. You need to identify the most recent peak on H4 to know the immediate resistance.
Important Support (Potential Buy Zone / Stop-Loss Zone):
Moving Averages (MA): Longer-term MA lines on H4 (e.g., MA50, MA100) usually play a role as strong dynamic support. If the price corrects to these lines and shows a bounce signal, it is a good buying area.
Old peaks broken: Old resistance levels, when broken, will become new support. For example, if ETH has broken 4,200 USD, then 4,200 USD can become support.
Psychological levels: Milestones like 4,000 USD or 3,800 USD (depending on the current price position) can be strong support areas due to psychological factors.
4. Signals from Technical Indicators on H4:
RSI (Relative Strength Index):
If RSI is in the overbought zone (above 70): Indicates strong upward momentum, but also carries the potential for a correction.
If RSI shows signs of bearish divergence (price makes higher highs but RSI makes lower highs): Warning of a potential reversal or deep correction.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence):
The MACD line is above the Signal line and both are above 0, with a positive and increasing Histogram: Confirms a strong upward trend.
If MACD starts showing signs of convergence or Histogram gradually decreases: Indicates that upward momentum may weaken.
Trading volume:
Strong volume increase when the price rises: Confirms a sustainable upward trend.
Volume decreases when the price corrects/sideways: Indicates that selling pressure is not too strong, possibly an accumulation phase.
Decision to Place Long/Short Orders (Based on H4):
With the market context and analysis on the 4-hour timeframe, the priority decision is Long (Buy).
Reason:
Dominant upward trend: ETH is supported by BTC's upward momentum and positive cash flow.
H4 timeframe: Provides a larger and more reliable picture compared to smaller timeframes (M30, H1) for medium-term trading decisions.
Growth potential: If BTC continues to set new highs, ETH may also follow and break its important resistance levels.
Long Order Placement Strategy (Buy):
Entry Point:
"Buy the Dip" Strategy: Look for entry points when the price of ETH corrects to strong support areas on the H4 chart.
Observe the price retesting old resistance levels that have been broken (now turned into support).
Observe the price touching or nearing important MA lines on H4 (e.g., MA50, MA100) and having a bounce signal (Hammer candle, Bullish Engulfing, Rising Pin Bar).
Suggested price zones: Could be around 4,000 - 4,200 USD if there is a correction (e.g.).
"Breakout Confirmation" Strategy: If ETH is accumulating below an important resistance and then breaks it with high volume, a Long order can be placed immediately when the H4 candle closes above the resistance.
Stop-Loss Point:
Place below the identified important support area. For example: If you buy at 4,100 USD when the price corrects to MA50, set the Stop-Loss just below MA50, or below the nearest local bottom. For example: below 3,900 USD or 3,800 USD (depending on the specific entry point and risk tolerance).
Take-Profit Point:
Next resistance levels: Aiming for psychological milestones or potential resistance such as 4,500 USD, 4,800 USD, 5,000 USD or even higher if the uptrend is strong (divided into parts for optimal profit).
Using Fibonacci Extensions: Use the Fibonacci extension tool from previous upward waves to identify potential price targets.
Note about Short:
Do not encourage Short in a strong upward trend: Placing a Short order in a strongly uptrending market on the H4 timeframe is extremely risky.
Only consider Short when there is a clear and sustainable reversal signal: If there are large bearish reversal candle patterns on H4, clear bearish divergence on RSI/MACD, or the price breaks important H4 supports with high volume, then Short may be considered but only with a short profit target and tight Stop-Loss.
In summary:
With the 4-hour chart, the priority is Long ETH when the price corrects to strong support areas or when there is confirmation of the upward trend continuation after a consolidation phase. Always manage risk by placing a stop-loss order and never invest more than you can afford to lose.
For the most accurate decision, open the ETH/USD (or ETH/USDT) chart on the 4-hour timeframe on your trading platform and analyze the factors yourself.