The smoke of war has just drifted into Eastern Europe, and the thunderstorm in the crypto world has already struck!
Recently, the tension in Eastern Europe has directly turned the crypto market into a roller coaster, with Bitcoin dropping 3% in half an hour and altcoins collectively performing a "plunge show", even stablecoins that are usually stable are shaking. Why? Because this geopolitical fire is burning the confidence of investors, and what cryptocurrencies fear the most is the word "uncertainty".
My viewpoint: War is a "stress test" for the crypto market, but it’s also a hunting ground for smart money.
In traditional finance, gold and the US dollar are the kings of safe-haven assets, but the logic in the crypto circle is more wild: when risks come, run first; when opportunities arise, act quickly to buy the dip.
For example: at the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, Bitcoin dropped 15% in a week, but then rebounded 40% in the following two months. Why? Because the market realized that "war won't immediately destroy blockchain", and instead, some people took advantage of the chaos to buy at low prices.
What about this time? Trump's $1 billion military aid + NATO accelerating arms supply are essentially signals of "escalation of conflict". Capital will first flow into traditional safe-haven assets like gold and US Treasuries, but the crypto market won’t completely lie flat as volatility itself is an opportunity. For example, when Bitcoin dropped to 62,000 yesterday, a major investor directly bought 1,000 coins, the reason is simple: "Geopolitical conflict won't bring Bitcoin to zero, but it will cause leveraged investors to get liquidated, and this is the best time to pick up cheap assets."
Key reminder: These three minefields, stepping on just one is enough trouble.
Mass exodus of funds: Don't think only retail investors are fleeing; institutions are adjusting their positions too. Recently, the premium rate of USDT (stablecoin) suddenly spiked, indicating someone is exchanging crypto assets for "safe assets", and the market may continue to be under pressure in the short term.
Sanctions could drop at any time: After Russia was sanctioned, crypto exchanges restricted Russian users from trading, causing a brief market panic. If the conflict escalates this time, certain countries' crypto channels could be "choked off", such as payment channels and mining power supply, which will affect supply and demand.
A feast for the manipulators: As soon as the news of war breaks, the contract market sees a surge in liquidations, with both long and short positions being blown up daily. Chasing highs and selling lows at this time? It’s like delivering heads to the manipulators.
Finally, let me ask: are you ready to be "cannon fodder" or be a "hunter"?
Currently, the strategies in the crypto circle are simply three:
Hedgers: open short positions + buy gold ETFs, fighting with both hands; stablecoin enthusiasts: convert assets into USDC, wait for the market to stabilize before entering; bottom fishers: watching critical levels like Bitcoin 58,000 and Ethereum 3,200, ready to catch falling knives.
Which one will you choose? Let me know in the comments, the strategy with the most likes will be analyzed in detail in the next issue.
For the upcoming layout direction, I plan to lead everyone to find those highly profitable opportunities in altcoins, expecting gains to multiply by ten isn't a problem. Like and comment, and I'll take you all to layout for the entire bull market!
