#山寨季何时到来？
🌟 “Old coins awaken, is the countdown to Altseason starting?”
📈 Current signal: Mini altcoin season is showing its first signs
Leading old coins: After Bitcoin broke the new high of $123,000, the capital rotation accelerated!
Stellar (XLM) surged 82% in 7 days, followed by ADA (+30%), XRP (+29%), and DOGE (+18%).
New public chains SEI and ENA experienced over 30% gains in a week, with institutions and retail investors entering simultaneously.
Historical experience: The collective explosion of old coins often indicates the return of retail investors, signaling an increase in risk appetite.
Key indicators warming up:
The altcoin season index rose from 15 on June 22 to 36 on July 16 (threshold must be ≥75), although it has not reached the standard, the upward trend is significant.
The TOTAL3 index (total market cap of altcoins excluding BTC/ETH) has entered the “Banana Zone 2.0”, after consolidation, it may face a breakout.
⏳ When will Altseason fully start? Three major catalysts
Liquidity gates: Interest rate cuts and ETFs
Federal Reserve interest rate cuts: LD Capital's founder predicts that if rate cuts occur in August-September, liquidity overflow will ignite the altcoin season.
The altcoin ETF wave: 70+ spot ETFs queued for approval (SOL, XRP, DOGE, etc.), SEC plans to introduce general listing standards, potentially batch approvals in the fourth quarter, attracting hundreds of billions in institutional funds.
Bitcoin's dominance loosening:
If BTC's market share falls below 60% (currently about 64%), a historical rotation will be triggered.
Analyst Satori found: BTC's market share declines during sideways/slow growth, which is a precursor to the altcoin season (validated in 2017 and 2021).
Narrative-driven fundamentals:
New use cases like AI + Blockchain, RWA tokenization, GameFi, etc., support value, not purely speculative.
Ethereum L2 technology breakthroughs reduce transaction costs, benefiting altcoins within the ecosystem.
🚀 Strategic advice: Position in high-potential sectors
Public chain infrastructure: High-performance L1s like SEI, SUI, HBAR have received heavy investment from Arthur Hayes, with spot gains crushing BTC.
Undervalued old coins: XLM, ADA, etc., have experienced multiple bull and bear cycles, with technological upgrades + ecosystem recovery forming a double impact.
Hedging strategy: Maintain a 20% BTC position to defend against volatility, while diversifying 80% into an altcoin portfolio.
💎 Conclusion: Although Altseason has not officially reached the standard, the “Banana Zone” breakout is imminent! Interest rate cuts, ETFs, and technological narratives are all aligning, with August-September potentially being a critical window.
⚠️ Beware of risks: US tariff policies (TACO Act) and a wave of leveraged liquidations may interrupt the rhythm, strictly control positions!
