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Quantum computing, often viewed as a sword of Damocles hanging over blockchains, has fueled fantasies and speculations for over a decade. In this universe of uncertainty, Vitalik Buterin, co-founder of Ethereum, offers a diagnosis against the current: clear, quantified, but above all confident. For him, the arrival of machines capable of breaking current cryptographic foundations is not a foregone conclusion; it is a deadline. And Ethereum will be ready.
In summary
Vitalik Buterin believes that quantum computing does not threaten Ethereum before 2035.
The Ethereum community is already developing post-quantum cryptographic solutions.
A native zkEVM will be integrated into layer 1 to reinforce security and scalability.
Vitalik Buterin: clarity in the quantum fog
During his participation in the Epicenter podcast, Vitalik Buterin demystified: no, quantum computing is not going to blow up Ethereum overnight. What he opposes to the prevailing alarmism is a rigorous, relentless analysis, supported by the aggregated forecasts of platforms like Metaculus. According to these, the critical threshold, where a quantum machine could break cryptography, is estimated to be between 2030 and 2035.
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But Buterin does not just throw numbers around. He carefully distinguishes between scientific advancements and marketing strategies. Because in the quantum world, boasting is common. Many supposed quantum computers are actually gadgets incapable of running the true algorithms that threaten modern cryptography.
What is the key indicator, according to him? The largest number that has been factored using Shor's algorithm. As long as this number does not exceed 35, networks like Ethereum can be at ease.
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A strategic anticipation already underway
What distinguishes Ethereum in this race against time is not just vigilance, but active preparation. Buterin highlights the concrete efforts of the ecosystem, starting with Justin Drake's work on aggregation-friendly signatures resistant to quantum attacks.
Rather than waiting for the storm to react, Ethereum moves against the tide with structural solutions. The recent roadmap published by the Ethereum Foundation announces the direct integration of a zkEVM into layer 1, within twelve months. This choice is not accidental: it is based on succinct STARK proofs, whose very nature is resistant to quantum computers.
The challenge is twofold: to accelerate scalability while drastically reducing the attack surface of the network. With a verifiable proof in less than 12 seconds, even a single validator will be able to protect the network against sophisticated attacks, all without having to reproduce transactions one by one. A technical feat, but above all, a bold strategic anticipation. Perhaps this is what attracts investors. To the point of making it the number one option for crypto ETFs.
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