$ETH holding steady around $3,000, MVRV, SOPR, NUPL, and ETF cash flow all agree on the possibility of breaking up to $4,000–4,900 in the second half of 2025.

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1. Today's update

Current price: ~ $3,019, down about 1.1% in 24h

24h Volume: approximately $30–40 billion (CoinGecko: ~ $40 billion)

Market cap: ~$360 billion, circulating ETH ~120.7 million

Sentiment: Positive – up ~16–17% in the past 7 days, supported by institutional money flow (ETFs, treasuries), whale accumulation

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2. News & price drivers

🔹 Short-term catalysts

Whale accumulation & reducing exchange reserves: ETH on exchanges decreased by about 2%, open interest pulled up to ~ $7 billion

Déjà breaking the $2,800 zone with large volume, creating momentum towards $3,300–3,500

🔸 Long-term narratives

Strong on-chain: MVRV, SOPR, NUPL all indicate profit zones – there's room to continue rising, target $4k–4.9k

Institutional flows & ETF: record inflows into ETFs, companies hoarding ETH as a treasury asset

Stablecoin & DeFi dominance: ETH holds 50% of the stablecoin market share, stablecoin supply ~$132 billion – capital base always above ETH

Next upgrade: Pectra (mid-2025) + Fusaka roadmap, will support foundational technical infrastructure

> Role: ETH is the backbone of smart contracts, DeFi, staking, L2s, and Treasury → an essential foundation for long-term narratives.

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3. Technical analysis & scenarios

Indicator & Chart structure

Price around $2,950–3,020, maintaining above mid-term MAs

RSI: neutral → slightly bullish

MACD: trending positive, supporting bull structure

Pattern: breakout from symmetrical triangle → continuing up to fib levels $3,080–3,525

Support & Resistance

Support: $2,945 → next $2,865 and the zone $2,800

Resistance: psychological level $3,000–3,080; if broken, could target $3,525 → next target $4,075–4,000+

Scenario

✅ Bull: holding above $2,945–3,000 & breaking $3,080 → targeting $3,525 → $4,000–4,900

❌ Bear: breaking below $2,945/2,800 → correction to $2,700–2,530

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4. Proposed investment strategy

Short-term Trader

Buy zone: $2,950–3,000 (retest support or breakout confirm)

Target: $3,525–3,800

SL: if below $2,940 or $2,900 depending on risk tolerance

Medium – long-term Holder

Accumulation zone: $2,800–2,950

Long-term target: $4,000–4,900 according to ETF momentum + on-chain + upgrade

SL: below $2,700, especially breaking below $2,530 should be re-evaluated

⚠️ Not investment advice. DYOR & manage capital appropriately.