Tonight at 8:30 PM, the US June unadjusted CPI annual rate will be announced, a key piece of data that the market is highly concerned about (five-star event ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️)

｜Key Data Preview｜

Previous Value: 2.40%

Expected: 2.70%

Actual: Not yet announced

From the expected value, the market believes inflation may rebound from last month's 2.4% to 2.7%. Such a change has already started to affect market sentiment—interest rate cut expectations may cool, the dollar may strengthen, and cryptocurrencies are becoming more conservatively cautious.

Why is CPI so important?

Because it directly affects the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy.

High inflation → The Federal Reserve will raise interest rates (negative for the stock/crypto market)

Lower inflation → Favorable for interest rate cuts (positive for risk assets)

If higher than expected (>2.7%): Inflation pressure increases, and the market will worry that the Federal Reserve will hesitate to cut rates, which is unfavorable for risk assets.

If lower than expected (<2.7%): Opportunities for rate cuts will increase again, and risk assets are expected to rebound, with BTC/ETH possibly experiencing a short-term surge.

Looking at the current BTC market perspective, one can find an imbalance gap below in the daily chart, along with a low volume area. Both of these will attract price recovery. I personally predict that today’s news may lean bearish. After filling the gap and the low volume area, it could then rise. One can pay attention to the Fibonacci 0.618 level (approximately 113500). From a market perspective, it is still bullish; this wave of decline is a pullback. Unless it breaks below the support level, it may turn bearish. I advise new friends not to open orders based on news, as the risk is relatively high.