Recently, many crypto friends have privately messaged me asking:#山寨季要来了吗
"Has altcoin season really arrived? Why does it feel like we're still stalling?"#美国加密周
"#TRUMP This memecoin is so exciting; exchanges are rushing to list it?
Don't rush; in this article, we will break down several key points in the current market—from changes in Bitcoin dominance to signals of altcoins stirring, and the astonishing truth behind the TRUMP token, giving you a clear overview 💡
🔍 Altcoin season: Has it really arrived? Or is it still 'loading'?
If you are also waiting for 'altcoins to soar,' you should know one indicator—the Altcoin Season Index. This is a tool launched by the Blockchain Center to determine whether we have truly entered 'altcoin season.'
This index is viewed as follows:
Below 25 = BTC season (Bitcoin dominates alone)
Above 75 = Altcoin season (Altcoin frenzy)
Between 25 and 75 = Mixed season (Everyone is watching)
📉 So far, this index hovers around 33. Well... it's not exactly hot, but it's not cold either. Simply put: 'It's not the climax yet, don't panic.'
🚀 BTC has broken through $122,000, but has the market not 'smoked' yet?
Don't be fooled by the apparent inactivity of altcoins; Bitcoin (BTC) has been quite strong. Recently, the price broke through $122,000, and the market performance remains solid. Interestingly, even though the price hit a new high, the market has not overheated. In other words, this surge still has 'solid support.'
👉 What does this mean for altcoins?
It's important to note that usually, the rise of altcoins often follows a 'consolidation period' of BTC—meaning after BTC rises, it begins to consolidate, and then funds rotate into altcoins. This is when the golden opportunity for Altcoin season arises.
So, this stage may just be a quiet moment before the curtain rises.
📉 Bitcoin dominance decline = Opportunity for altcoins?
Another important indicator to watch is: BTC.D (Bitcoin dominance). This metric measures Bitcoin's market capitalization share in the entire crypto market.
👇 Here comes the key point:
Starting from June 27, BTC.D began to decline significantly.
In just over two weeks, it fell by 2.07%.
Currently, the BTC.D ratio is approximately 64.65%.
Although the decline does not seem significant, it is already a considerable signal.
📊 Looking back at history:
At the end of 2017 and the first half of 2021, BTC.D fell to around 40%, which was the peak of altcoin frenzy!
Currently about 64%, there is still some distance from 40%, but a downward trend has already emerged. This may indicate that funds are slowly shifting to other cryptocurrencies.
💥 The total market value of altcoins has reached $1.25 trillion: Is a new trend brewing?
If BTC.D is a 'barometer,' then 'market value of altcoins' is a thermometer.
Latest data shows that the market value of altcoins has surpassed the strong resistance level of $1.25 trillion, which is not just a casual remark—this position is a critical technical barrier.
📈 The next target to watch is:
Historic high in December: $1.64 trillion.
To achieve the target, Bitcoin needs to continue rising. Altcoin holders hope that a surge in Bitcoin will drive the entire crypto market. Typically, in the later stages of a rise, fund rotation can lead to altcoins soaring several times in a short period, ushering in the 'golden season for altcoins.'
BTC.D weekly reports show that similar phenomena are often accompanied by a significant drop in BTC.D dominance. At the end of 2017 and the first half of 2021, BTC.D fell to around 40%. Currently, BTC.D's share is 64.65%, significantly higher than 40%.
💡 ETH is also an important indicator: breaking above $3000 could drive the entire altcoin sector!
Don't forget, Ethereum (ETH) has always been the 'leader of altcoins.'
Recently, ETH's price has surged close to $3000, and there are many favorable factors supporting it—such as ETF expectations, Layer 2 outbreaks, DeFi recovery, and so on.
👉 If ETH successfully breaks through the key resistance level, it could become a catalyst for the altcoin market.
So, if you want to know when Altseason arrives, watching ETH's performance might be more interesting than focusing on BTC.
🐸 The great show of meme coins: TRUMP tokens are flying high, and exchanges are raking in profits!
Speaking of altcoins, it would be too out of touch not to mention meme coins, especially the most explosive coin in the crypto space recently—TRUMP (Trump official meme coin).
🎉 It surged to a historic high of $75 immediately after launch, allowing a group of early investors to reap substantial profits. However, there is also controversy behind it.
🤔 Real 'official coin'? But the community doesn't fully buy it.
TRUMP is directly launched by Trump's team, so it naturally has a strong momentum. However, many in the community are skeptical for the following reasons:
80% of the tokens are controlled by the Trump family and partners: the concentration is too high, posing a significant risk of 'project parties crashing the market.'
The market lacks transparency, and the circulating supply is too small, making it easy to control.
🧊 Latest data shows that TRUMP has adjusted over 87% from its peak, currently priced at about $9.14, dropping 6.64% daily.
🏦 Why are exchanges rushing to list TRUMP? The motivation behind it is $172 million 💰
According to Reuters data, the trading fee income generated by the top 10 exchanges listing TRUMP coin exceeds $172 million.
Even more explosive is:
The listing speed is incredibly fast: 8 exchanges went live within 48 hours, with Coinbase following 3 days later, and Upbit only catching up mid-February.
In contrast, popular meme coins like PEPE, BONK, WIF, FARTCOIN have an average listing time of 129 days!
😲 In other words, TRUMP has become one of the fastest meme coins to be 'listed on major exchanges in a flash.'
Why so fast? The CEO of Bitget just spoke the truth:
"User trading volume and market heat have overshadowed the so-called risk factors."
📉 On one side, winners are making a fortune, while on the other, a large number of retail investors are stuck.
While some are profiting, many others are 'eating noodles.'
🔻 According to on-chain data from Bubblemaps:
There are 45 wallets that gained about $1.2 billion in profits during this wave of TRUMP listings.
At the same time, there are 712,777 wallets that collectively lost $4.3 billion.
This is the typical dilemma of meme coins: some early birds soar, while a large number of latecomers get trapped.
🎯 Summary: Altseason is still brewing, and the climax of Memecoin may not be the end.
Whether it's the potential of altcoins or the explosive performance of meme coins, the entire crypto market is releasing a certain emotion:
"The next big market wave may be just around the corner."
But this does not mean you can just go all in. Especially when facing projects like TRUMP, which have skyrocketing popularity and equally high risks, it's essential to stay calm.
🔮 Key signals to watch in the coming weeks include:
Is Bitcoin entering a consolidation phase?
Will BTC.D continue to decline?
Can ETH stabilize above $3000?
Will the market value of altcoins impact the historic high of $1.64 trillion?
Whether the trends of popular memecoins are gradually rationalizing.
🧠 Final words:
The spring of the crypto circle may not necessarily be a frenzied start; it could also be a signal of rational return.
Don't be hijacked by FOMO, and don't easily give up on the potential of altcoins. The real Altseason has never been 'officially announced' on a specific day, but has simmered slowly and eventually exploded 🌱
The next round of doubling may not come from the coins you are familiar with, but certainly from the market you patiently observe.
✍️ DYOR, manage your risk well, and may you all set sail in the crypto world! 🌊
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