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Today's market hotspots and mainstream cryptocurrency analysis.
Cryptocurrency events.
1. Mastercard: The road to stablecoins becoming a mainstream payment method is long.
2. Trump: The market has become calm and positive due to the role of Bescent.
3. Oudo Finance announces acquisition of Strangelove to accelerate full-stack RWA platform development.
4. Trump states that advanced NATO weapons support for Ukraine has been fully approved, and the NATO agreement is finalized.
Today's mainstream cryptocurrency trend analysis:
#BTC Yesterday, Bitcoin experienced selling pressure after a surge, leading to continued declines; the current pullback has caused a break below the mid-range in the four-hour timeframe, with short-term support around the lower range of $105,600-$104,500.
#ETH Ethereum's trend is synchronized with Bitcoin, dipping back to the previous fluctuation range; the main strategy remains the same as yesterday; a significant drop below $2,900 indicates a need for bulls to temporarily avoid risks.
Pay attention to the evening CPI data, as market conditions can change rapidly; refer to actual market conditions and ensure good risk control!
Bitcoin's pullback after hitting a historical high requires rational positioning during this key event week.
Recently, the cryptocurrency market has stirred again, with Bitcoin ($BTC) experiencing a pullback after setting a historical high of $123,250. This round of rise and fall not only stirs the nerves of global investors but also conceals subtle changes in market sentiment and capital dynamics. In light of the current market situation, we must remain alert to the potential risks of short-term 'pumping and dumping,' while also focusing on the profound impacts of key events this week on future trends.
Pullback after a new high: Support levels under pressure and concerns over 'pumping and dumping'.
Bitcoin has shown a divergence in short-term buying momentum after breaking through the $120,000 mark, reaching a historical peak of $123,250, with prices gradually retracting. As of the writing on July 15, Bitcoin was quoted at $117,920, falling below the short-term support level of $118,800 indicated by CoinGlass liquidity data, representing a pullback of about 4.3%.
It is worth noting that when Bitcoin retraced to around $120,500, there was a brief buy support in the market. However, this 'support signal' needs to be approached with caution — from a market dynamics perspective, such buying might be a 'trap' behavior by short-term capital to attract late-arriving bullish investors. Historical experience shows that 'false support' during the initial stages of a high-price pullback often accompanies 'pumping and dumping' risks, especially for investors who enter at highs; if they fail to avoid risks in time, they may face pressure from being trapped.
From a technical perspective, this round of pullback is not accidental. Data from the global cryptocurrency perpetual contract market shows that total liquidations in the past 24 hours reached $843 million, with $549 million in liquidations concentrated in short positions (betting on price declines). The concentrated liquidations of short positions reflect the prior release of bullish sentiment and indicate a technical correction demand after the market heats up. Although the final peak of this bull market has yet to be determined, Bitcoin will likely need to complete repeated tests of lower support levels before effectively breaking through the $130,000 mark.
Extended reading: A mysterious trader was liquidated 8 times in a week, losing $12.5 million【Review his operations and learn lessons】.
Long-term bullish outlook remains, but 'chasing highs' is not as favorable as 'positioning during pullbacks'.
Despite short-term pullbacks causing market worries, the structural bullish logic for Bitcoin remains unshaken. The core supporting factors come from two aspects: first, institutional funds continue to flow into the cryptocurrency market, from the increasing holdings of compliant ETFs to the actions of traditional financial institutions; long-term investments provide a solid 'base' for the market; second, positive factors in the current macroeconomic environment are still fermenting, with expectations for easing and a rebound in risk asset preferences providing support for cryptocurrencies represented by Bitcoin.
However, 'long-term bullish' does not mean that one can blindly chase highs. For ordinary investors, it is more important to maintain rationality at the current price level — professional investors have begun to hedge against short-term volatility, and this 'long bullish short defensive' strategy is worth learning. The market has not yet shown typical 'fear of missing out (FOMO)' sentiment, which not only reflects the current market's maturation but also indicates that better positioning opportunities may arise during the pullback process. Gradually positioning when prices return to near key support levels and sentiment stabilizes is far more advantageous than chasing prices at highs.
Key event week is here: three major variables affecting future trends.
This week, the cryptocurrency market will face multiple key events that will 'intensively test' the market; these variables may directly affect the subsequent direction of Bitcoin and the entire market.
First, the US June CPI data. Tonight (July 15, 20:30), the US government will announce the June Consumer Price Index, a figure directly related to the future monetary policy direction of the Federal Reserve. If CPI growth slows more than expected, market expectations for interest rate cuts may rise, potentially boosting risk assets; conversely, if inflation proves stickier than expected, concerns over rate hikes may resurface, which could subject cryptocurrencies to further pullback pressure.
Next is the super earnings report week. Tech giants like Apple, Microsoft, and Tesla will release earnings reports, and their performance and forward guidance will not only affect US stock market sentiment but may also spill over into the cryptocurrency sector — the correlation between tech stocks and cryptocurrencies is particularly evident during liquidity-driven cycles, and the 'joys and sorrows' of major companies' earnings reports might catalyze short-term market fluctuations.
Lastly, the US House of Representatives' 'Cryptocurrency Week'. This week, the US House will focus on the cryptocurrency sector, with the review process of three key cryptocurrency bills drawing significant attention. If breakthroughs are made in regulatory frameworks and compliance pathways, it will inject policy certainty into the cryptocurrency market and benefit the industry's ecosystem in the long run; conversely, if reviews encounter obstacles or negative signals emerge, short-term market sentiment may come under pressure.
Conclusion: Grasp opportunities cautiously; key events will become 'indicators'.
The pullback after Bitcoin's new high is both a release of risk and a process of the market returning to rationality. In the face of potential risks of 'pumping and dumping', investors should be cautious about chasing prices at highs and patiently await layout opportunities during pullbacks. The CPI data, the super earnings report week, and the review of cryptocurrency bills this week will become the 'three major indicators' for assessing future trends. In the context of intensified market dynamics, maintaining a mindset of 'long-term bullish, not chasing highs; short-term cautious, not panicking' is essential to grasp structural opportunities amid volatility.
