📈 Current State of the Bitcoin Market (July 2025)
Bitcoin (BTC) remains in a solid bullish trend, with a new all-time high (ATH) of $123,220 reached on July 14. Currently, the price hovers around $121,568, consolidating near record levels after a 4% increase in 24 hours. The crypto market capitalization exceeds $3.81 trillion, led by BTC, which maintains a dominance of ~66%.
🔍 Factors Supporting the Bullish Trend
1. Record Institutional Demand:
- Bitcoin ETFs recorded inflows of $1,030 million in a single day (July 14), marking the second consecutive day above $1,000 million. Funds like BlackRock and Fidelity are aggressively accumulating BTC, absorbing the available supply.
- Companies like MetaPlanet added $96 million in BTC to their reserves this week, reinforcing the narrative of "store of value."
2. Favorable Technical Indicators:
- Bollinger Bands: The current compression (7.7% amplitude) indicates energy accumulation for a new rise. Historically, this precedes bullish breakouts.
- Fibonacci: The break of resistance at $123,023 paves the way to $130,000 (next psychological target) and $131,330 (161.8% projection).
- RSI and MACD: No signals of extreme overbought, supporting bullish continuity.
3. Macro and Regulatory Context:
- Crypto Week in the U.S. (July 14-18): Congressional debates on laws like the CLARITY Act and Anti-CBDC Surveillance Act could bring regulatory clarity, boosting confidence.
- Dollar Weakness: The USD has its worst start to the year since 1973 (-11% in 6 months), favoring scarce assets like BTC.
- Trump's Tariffs: Trade uncertainty (30-50% rates on the EU and Latin America) strengthens BTC as a hedge against fiscal crises.
4. On-Chain Fundamentals:
- Supply Reduction on Exchanges: Net outflow of 50,000 BTC in April 2025, a sign of accumulation by "HODLers."
- 2024 Halving: The impact of emission reduction (3.125 BTC/block) typically drives prices 12-18 months later, with peaks expected in 2025-2026.
⚠️ Risks and Possible Corrections
- Short-Term Profit Taking:
Liquidations in derivatives exceeded $1 billion in 24 hours, and a pullback to $118,000-$117,000 is likely before new highs.
- Historical Correction Patterns:
Some models (like Elliott Waves) suggest a correction of 20-30% towards $102,000 or even $60,000 if key supports are lost, but this would be part of a "healthy cooling," not the end of the cycle.
- External Factors:
U.S. inflation data (CPI and PPI released on July 15) or changes in Fed policies could generate volatility.
📊 Perspectives and Goals for 2025
Highlighted Predictions:
- Standard Chartered: $200,000 by December 2025.
- VanEck: Double bullish peak with the first maximum at $180,000 (mid-2025).
- PlanB (S2F Model): Average of $500,000 between 2025-2028.
💎 Is the Bullish Trend Still Alive?
Yes, but with controlled volatility. Bitcoin is in a mid-phase of the bullish cycle, with solid fundamentals (institutional demand, post-halving scarcity) and regulatory catalysts. Although technical corrections are likely (key supports: $120,000 and $117,000), the trajectory points to new highs towards $150,000-$200,000 in 2025.
Strategic Recommendations:
- Monitor support/resistance levels and ETF flows.
- Use DCA (Dollar-Cost Averaging) to mitigate volatility.
- Watch for "altcoin season": If BTC's dominance falls, assets like ETH, SOL, or layer 2 projects (e.g., Bitcoin Hyper) could soar.
"Bitcoin has ceased to be a decentralized currency and has become an asset for protection against the global fiscal crisis" — The Kobeissi Letter.
