# 🗞️ Crypto Pulse Check – Mid-July 2025
*“Tariffs, Trump, and tokenized skyscrapers”*
1️⃣ Tariff tantrums vs. ETF tailwinds
The first half of 2025 has been a tug-of-war.
- **Q1 dip**: fresh U.S. trade tariffs sparked a classic risk-off wave, yanking BTC from a December 2024 peak of **$106 k** down into the low-$90 ks .
- **Q2 snap-back**: spot-Bitcoin ETFs soaked up every dip—BlackRock’s IBIT alone crossed **$15 B** in AUM—pushing BTC to a fresh **$111 k** record in June .
- **Consensus target**: 68 % of crypto holders now expect **$200 k BTC by December**; even 25 % of *non-holders* agree .
2️⃣ Policy whiplash in Washington
President Trump’s second term is a paradox:
- **Pro-crypto headline**: a **Crypto Task Force** and the **Strategic Bitcoin Reserve** (yes, the White House is stacking sats) .
- **Trade friction**: new tariffs keep risk sentiment brittle—every tariff headline still knocks 5-7 % off BTC within hours .
- **Accounting relief**: the **GENIUS Act** (stable-coin bill) and the repeal of **SAB-121** are making bank custody and tokenized treasuries suddenly palatable for Fortune-500 CFOs .
3️⃣ Where the smart money is moving
Venture capital is **back**—but pickier:
- **$4.9 B** poured into crypto start-ups in Q1 2025, the highest in two years, with Binance grabbing the single largest check ($2 B) .
- The focus shifted to **real-world assets** (RWAs): fractional real-estate tokens, on-chain T-bills, and AI-data marketplaces .
- **AI-crypto mergers**: the **ASI token** (SingularityNET + Fetch.ai + Ocean) is now a top-20 asset, up 240 % YTD on AI-narrative hype .
4️⃣ Stablecoins: the quiet $8 T gorilla
- Visa reports **1 B annual on-chain transactions**, totaling **$8 T** in transfer value—more than Mastercard + Amex combined .
- Singapore just piloted **stablecoin-based cross-border trade**; Latin America is using USDC to hedge inflation .
- **Regulatory clarity** (GENIUS Act) is expected to green-light bank-issued stablecoins by Q4, shrinking the moat for legacy remittance giants.
5️⃣ What to watch next
| Catalyst | Consensus Probability | Potential Impact
| Solana & XRP spot-ETF approvals | 65 % by October | SOL to $250, XRP to $1.50 |
| Fed rate cut amid tariff slowdown | 50 % in September | Risk-on tailwind |
| MiCA (EU) full enforcement | 100 % by year-end | Capital flight to compliant exchanges |
| AI-crypto mega-IPO (Render or ASI) | 40 % | Narrative extension
🔮 One-sentence takeaway
**Tariffs create noise, ETFs absorb it, RWAs build the bridge to Wall Street, and stablecoins are already the rails—welcome to the choppy but maturing bull of 2025.**