Bitcoin hit a new high this morning, reaching a maximum of $119,999, triggering a surge in market sentiment.
However, it should be noted that in the past 24 hours, 98,956 people have been liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of up to $278 million. At a time when the sentiment across the network is extremely exuberant, I instead advise everyone to remain calm and be cautious of the risks of chasing highs. The hotter the market, the clearer one must see the structure and rhythm.
BTC
Bitcoin reaches around 119999, the Bitcoin weekly chart breaks the resistance and resolves the double top crisis, currently the bulls are unstoppable, short-term breakthroughs in resistance lead to upward movement, and the support and resistance swap is established. Pay attention to whether the pullback demand can be met today, seizing low long opportunities, currently two expectations:
1. White line: 5-wave upward structure, currently in the 3rd wave upward, with another 5th wave upward after the pullback.
2. Yellow line: abc upward structure, currently in the last wave of the c wave upward, which will end the upward movement early.
The current upward movement is not finished, pay attention to the support results around 118500—118000, stop-loss if it breaks down the lower channel, otherwise the upward movement will end.
The current trend is still in a major upward wave, but the rhythm has entered a critical point. Whether it can continue to strengthen depends on the effectiveness of the pullback support and the continuity of bullish funds. It is essential to control the rhythm and layout reasonably to grasp the final profit interval.
ETH
This morning, although Ethereum rose in sync, the overall increase was slightly weaker than Bitcoin. Looking back at the past two rounds of large increases, ETH has reached around $4000, so this round of market movement is also expected to extend to this target. The key level is 2988, support at 2851/2788-2719, and there is currently no pressure level. The focus today is to observe whether Bitcoin can effectively break through the key resistance of $119,200. If confirmed, ETH is likely to trend upward, and one can choose to follow up at that time. The first two expectations for Ethereum are:
1. White line: 5-wave upward structure, currently in the 3rd wave upward, with another 5th wave upward after the pullback, bullish above 3400.
2. Yellow line: abc upward structure, currently in the last wave of the c wave upward, which will end the upward movement early. The current upward movement is not finished; if it breaks down the lower channel, the upward movement will end.
U.S. Crypto Week
Starting today, we will officially enter the cryptocurrency week defined by the U.S. House of Representatives. From July 14 to 18, votes will be held consecutively on three bills, which are familiar to everyone (GENIUS Act), (Digital Asset Market Clarification Act), which aims for clearer regulatory boundaries, defining many contents as digital goods to completely escape the securities concept and no longer be under SEC jurisdiction, which is beneficial for altcoins led by DeFi. The (Anti-CBDC Monitoring State Act) is essentially paving the way for the development of stablecoins under the GENIUS Act.
From now on, there will be three main lines in the cryptocurrency circle: 1. Compliance 2. Stablecoins 3. BTC as the main focus.
Has the altcoin uptrend formed?
Currently, most mainstream altcoins' RSI are in an overbought state, indicating a need for a pullback. The best entry point is of course when the RSI approaches the level of 30. The weekly RSI, however, is still okay, all below 60, which means there is still considerable upward potential at the weekly level.
Since the market has broken through and reversed, and the upward trend has formed, the operational thinking is also relatively clear: accumulate positions gradually on dips to fill up the positions.
PEPE: The short-term accumulation position is at the lower band of the 4-hour Bollinger Bands, while the daily accumulation point is at the Fibonacci level of 0.236 at 1080. The short-term sell points are 1420 and 1630.
SOL: The short-term accumulation position is also at the lower band of the 4-hour Bollinger Bands, while the daily accumulation point is at 150, with short-term sell points at 172 and 180. RAY is performing stronger, so just follow the SOL operation.
Currently, both PEPE and SOL are forming a W bottom pattern, the key is whether they can effectively break through the neckline of the W bottom. The neckline for PEPE is 1632, and for SOL is 188. Once broken, combined with Bitcoin's upward trend, we can see the previous round.
Has the altcoin season truly begun? The key depends on Bitcoin's structural support.
Whether the altcoins will fully explode still depends on Bitcoin's performance:
If BTC tests the support of 112000 without breaking and continues to rise, it will further boost market risk appetite, and the altcoin sector may welcome a truly comprehensive explosion.
If BTC loses the support of 112000 and experiences a deep pullback, then the altcoins may again fail midway and see a temporary peak.
How will the market move from now until the end of the year?
Time has entered the second half of the year, with less than 6 months remaining, we may face two scenarios:
Continuation of short squeeze upward → Market continues to rise, forming a bull top before and after the Fed rate cut in September;
Rebooting after a bottom in August → Adjusting and building momentum, the main upward wave is concentrated in the fourth quarter to explode.
Regardless of which scenario plays out, the market has entered a critical juncture, with opportunities and risks coexisting. At this moment, caution does not mean pessimism; missing out is the biggest risk.
Grasp the structure, follow the trend, and complete the position building in a clear trend; this is the key to obtaining the final result.
