Current coordinates: 119,700-119,800 repeatedly rubbing (quickly falling back after breaking 120,000, a typical false breakout characteristic)
Three major death signals from the technical perspective:
“Volume betrayal”
When breaking 120,000, the explosion in volume is like a firecracker, but only lasts 3 minutes! Subsequent volume directly goes limp → The dealer raises prices to unload the real hammer!
The amount of sell orders in the current price area is twice that of buy orders → The bears have buried plenty of landmines at 120,000!
“MACD blatant betrayal”
Price reaches a new high, but the MACD red bar secretly lengthens (selling pressure increases) → The professional term is called 'top divergence', and old dogs in the crypto space run when they see this signal!
The fast and slow lines are about to 'cross' at high positions → Countdown warning for a crash!
“Moving average meat grinder activated”
4-hour chart: MA7 (yellow line) flattens, MA30 (green line) slope slows down → Bullish momentum waning!
Key defense level: 119,500 (MA7 lifeline), breaking here directly triggers programmed selling!
Message nuclear bomb warning:
Tonight at 20:30 US CPI data: If inflation > 3.3%, US stocks crash dragging down BTC, plunging below 118,000 is not a dream!
Miner revolt countdown: 120,000 is the critical point for miner profitability, a large number of miners are placing sell orders at 119,800-120,200
German government selling nearing the end? Yesterday’s news said the remaining BTC has been transferred to exchanges, the last wave of selling could strike at any time!
Future market trend script + practical strategy:
Core script of the day (80% probability):
Trap continues: A final push to 120,000 to attract retail investors → Do not chase the rise here!
First shot of the waterfall: Breaking 119,500 triggers bullish stop-loss → Directly plunging into the support zone of 118,800-119,000
Ultimate abyss: If CPI is negative, nuclear-level selling pressure will kill down to 117,000 (4-hour Bollinger middle track)
Counterattack conditions (20% probability):
Volume breaks 120,300 and stabilizes for 2 hours → Chase the rise to see 122,000 (requires a single 4-hour volume bar > 1.5 times the previous high)
Sudden good news: If BlackRock ETF increases its holdings by more than 5,000 BTC in a single day, or rumors of the Fed's emergency rate cut
Life and death decision table of different players:
Today's survival rule:
Strict discipline: Breaking 119,500 must cut positions!
News avoidance: Clear out high-risk positions before 20:30!
Resist FOMO: False breakouts specifically kill retail investors chasing the rise!
The last true statement:
“120,000 is not a new starting point, it’s the graveyard grass of the bulls!”
Current price = betting on US CPI data in a casino, win and sip soup, lose and jump off the building — newcomers please exit voluntarily!
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