Family, it's Monday again, let me tell you how to walk this tightrope.
Latest price: $119,618 USDT
Core indicator signal:
Bollinger Bands opening upward and exploding (upper band $107,954 → currently has surged past the upper band!)
In simple terms: The price breaks through the 'ceiling', it could either be the night before a surge or a smokescreen from the dealer pulling up to sell!
MACD bar shortening + fast line flattening
In simple terms: The upward momentum is declining, the bulls are running out of strength! But the bears haven't officially moved, it’s a dangerous situation of 'holding one's breath at a high position'!
Trading volume hasn't kept up (bottom volume hasn't significantly increased)
In simple terms: How can retail investors not go crazy buying after breaking the previous high? It's highly likely that the dealer is indulging in a false breakout!
Today's ultimate strategy:
Bullish bottom line: Defend $117,000 (4-hour MA30 lifeline)
Hold on → waiting for the violent surge of short positions (watch $123,000)
If it can't hold → short-term flash crash to $111,000 (Bollinger middle track support)
Air Force Nuclear Button: Shorting after breaking $120,000?
Warning! If the volume truly breaks $120,000, the market's FOMO sentiment may ignite a +10% surge in one day! (A traditional skill in the crypto circle)
Ailes warning! Three deadly risks:
"Breaking the upper band must retreat" curse: Historically, after BTC breaks the upper Bollinger band, there is an 80% probability of a crash correction within 24 hours!
Main force hanging order trap: Current commission ratio -0.79% (slightly more sell orders), but a large number of small sell orders are ambushed around $119,600 → The dealer is laying mines!
News black swan: If tonight's US CPI data exceeds expectations, global risk assets will crash, and BTC will surely be sacrificed!
Practical advice (for veterans): Short-term: Open shorts in batches in the $119,800-$120,200 range, stop loss at $121,000, target $117,500 (risk-reward ratio 3:1)
Spot traders: Reduce positions by 50% if it falls below $118,000, buy back at $111,000 (the dealer loves to wash you out)
Contract newbie: Today, keep quiet and watch the show! The volatility is off the charts; one needle can blow up both long and short positions!
The last sentence of truth:
Current price = licking blood on the knife's edge; bulls earn bold money, bears earn patient money, retail investors lose careless money!
Pay attention, follow Ailes' top team, we have everything you want!