The big pancake (大饼) $BTC is getting closer to the previously predicted high point of 120,000. After conducting top-bottom analysis, price simulation, capital flow analysis, economic trend analysis, and time simulation, the overall conclusions are as follows:

1. In July, it is highly likely that the Federal Reserve will not lower interest rates; if they do, it would be a positive sign.

2. The big pancake will maintain an upward trend in July.

3. In August, it is highly likely to follow an upward trend.

4. The big pancake may reach the price level of 120,000 and could move to around 135 during this time period.

5. Upon reaching around 135, a significant correction may occur to around 110-109, with a time frame of 2-3 weeks.

6. Stabilizing at 109600, it will once again surge back to 170-200, then turn into a downward trend. The upward trend will end.

This time, I won’t say that the bull market has ended or that the bear market is coming. The 4-year cycle pattern in the cryptocurrency world has been broken, and there will no longer be a 4-year cycle in the future. Previously, there was a 4-year cycle due to the big pancake halving, reduced production, and increased mining costs. Now with over a million remaining, mining for decades will not exert enough selling pressure to influence the big pancake’s trend, and mining companies are buying the big pancake themselves. For example, Bitdeer bought tens of millions to a hundred million USD worth of big pancakes at over 80,000, which is evidence of institutional and public company support in buying, continuously bringing in inflows that exceed those of major players and retail investors. Retail investors are not accounted for here because it is impossible to track; based on experience, retail investment will exceed that of institutions and public companies.

Therefore, in the future, we will see a few months of upward movement followed by a few months of correction. If the strength is strong, it may break a new high; if weak, it will experience fluctuations; if even weaker, it may break the previous low. There will no longer be drastic movements like going from 20,000 to 3,000, then from 3,000 to 69,000, and then from 69,000 back to 15,400.

Most altcoins will gradually fade into oblivion and become neglected in this trend, with shrinking trading volumes and sudden spikes!

This personal analysis is for reference only and is not investment advice. The cryptocurrency market carries risks, and one is responsible for their own gains and losses.