Livermore's eight principles are indeed highly applicable in the cryptocurrency market, as the sentiment-driven and highly volatile nature of the crypto market shares similarities with the stock market in Livermore's era. Below is a brief analysis of the application of these eight principles in the crypto space:
1. Counter-trading: FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt) in the crypto market is often amplified, leading to potential overselling in panic situations, where leading coins or quality projects may have rebound opportunities. However, it is essential to consider fundamentals to avoid catching a 'fake rebound'.
2. Follow the trend: In a bull market, chasing hotspots, and in a bear market, holding cash is the way to go. Bitcoin halving cycles and macro policies (such as interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve) often drive the general trend, and ignoring trends can lead to being trapped.
3. Chase the leaders: Leading coins (such as BTC, ETH) or top performers in niche markets (Layer 1, DeFi, AI) typically show better resilience and stronger gains. Pay attention to trading volume, market capitalization, and community activity when selecting leaders.
4. Buy in batches: The volatility in the crypto market is significant; building positions in batches can lower the average price, and increasing positions during an uptrend can amplify returns. However, it is necessary to set profit-taking points to avoid getting trapped in high prices.
5. Control emotions: FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) and panic emotions in the crypto market can easily lead to irrational actions. Establish a trading plan and execute it strictly, avoiding 'all-in' or blind stop losses.
6. Wait for opportunities: Hotspots in the crypto market rotate quickly; buying low and selling high requires patience for key levels or events (such as project mainnet launches, ETF approvals). Avoid frequent trading to reduce costs.
7. Minimum resistance: Operate along price trends, increase positions in an uptrend, and observe in a downtrend. Technical analysis (such as breaking support/resistance levels) can assist in directional judgments.
8. Quick stop-loss: Sudden surges and drops are common in the crypto market; set a stop-loss line (5%-10%) and enforce it strictly, preserving capital is more important than 'waiting for a rebound'. Running fast ensures longer survival.
Summary from the expert: The core of these principles is discipline and risk control. The crypto market amplifies greed and fear, making strict adherence to strategies particularly crucial. Combining on-chain data (such as large holder movements, capital inflow) and market cycles can further improve the win rate.