$BTC **2024 BTC Price Prediction (120 words)**

- **Bull Market Scenario** (ETF approval + halving effect): If it breaks through the previous high of 48,000, target 65,000-75,000 (historical cycle growth model).

- **Consolidation Scenario** (regulatory pressure + macro volatility): Maintain the range of 25,000-40,000, following changes in US stock market liquidity.

- **Bear Market Risk** (black swan events): If it falls below the support of 20,000, it may drop to 12,000-15,000 (miner cost line).

- **Key Nodes**: In Q1 2024, focus on the final approval of the ETF, and in Q4 observe on-chain data after the halving.

(Note: The CME futures gap of 28,500/31,500 is a short-term magnet position.)