It looks like former President Trump has indeed reignited the tariff strategy:
• On July 12, 2025, Trump announced via letters posted on Truth Social that the U.S. will impose a 30% tariff on all imports from both the European Union and Mexico, effective August 1, 2025 .
• The justification: For the EU, Trump pointed to long-standing trade deficits and “non-reciprocal” trade practices . For Mexico, he cited insufficient action against fentanyl trafficking and other border security concerns .
• This move closely follows similar tariffs announced earlier this month—such as a 35% tariff on Canadian goods and 50% on copper, as part of a broader escalation .
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⚔️ Is this the start of a new tariff war?
Yes, very likely. This is a clear escalation of Trump’s “reciprocal tariffs” strategy, which intensified in April (20% on EU goods, 25% under USMCA, etc.) and has already involved Canada, Brazil, Japan, South Korea, and others ().
Reuters characterizes this as part of a widening trade war, with these tariffs hitting “major trading partners… after weeks of negotiations failed to reach a more comprehensive trade deal” . The European Union has threatened “proportionate retaliatory measures” and is scrambling to salvage a trade agreement before the August 1 deadline .
Private sector and investor responses are mixed—markets have remained relatively resilient, but there’s growing concern this aggressive policy could lead to dislocation in global supply chains, inflation, and a possible global slowdown .
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🔍 What to keep an eye on
1. Responses from the EU and Mexico
• The EU is working to finalize a trade deal to hold off the tariffs; if talks fail, expect steep retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods .
• Mexico may use exemptions under USMCA, but their overall reaction remains to be seen.
2. Upcoming domestic and global trade moves
• Trump has hinted at potential blanket tariffs on other nations (~20%), continuing expansion of copper duties, and possibly lifting or lowering tariffs if agreements are struck .
3. Market and supply chain effects
• While markets have absorbed some of the previous tariff rounds, analysts warn that this new escalation could impact exports, inflation, and investment ().
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✅ So: Is Trump starting a tariff war again?
Absolutely. The 30% tariffs on the EU and Mexico mark a significant escalation—part of an ongoing tariff blitz that began earlier this year. Whether it becomes a full trade war depends on how strongly the EU and Mexico retaliate and whether any deals are reached before August 1.
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