Bitcoin is soaring; is it time for the altcoin season? Can Ethereum reach $4000? These coins are about to explode; let’s take a look together.
There are two mainstream viewpoints on KZ:
1. KZ BTC will become a historical peak like in May 2021; this viewpoint has already failed.
2. In the second half of the year, KZ will enter a crazy bull market similar to 2017 and 2020, and we are already in the later stages of the bull market, expecting to see 200,000.
My view is that BTC and US stocks are in a slow bull market, while ETH is in the early stages of a bull market, not yet in the later stages, so it won’t be a crazy bull market. Monetary policy and international capital have taken over the cryptocurrency market, breaking the four-year bull-bear cycle, extending the bull market.
BTC
From the hourly structure, Bitcoin has broken through the lower boundary of the originally bullish flag pattern. It is not advisable to blindly go long until the price recovers within this pattern. The lower boundary that has been broken has turned from support into resistance, and only when Bitcoin returns to the inside of the flag and stabilizes can it have the potential for further upward movement.
If the price cannot return to the inside of the flag for an extended period, the probability of a subsequent correction will be significantly higher than that of continuing to rise. The upward trend line indicated by the white arrow in the image is a key short-term support level. If this trend line is lost, it may trigger a deeper correction. Conversely, as long as this support holds, Bitcoin is still expected to maintain a volatile state and does not currently pose systemic downside risks.
Currently, Bitcoin futures at CME have a gap in the range of 115,600-114,400, which translates to approximately 115,055-113,800 in contract prices. So if it fills the gap, it will retest here. Friends who are holding cash can wait for a small retest before entering.
In summary, the current local structure of Bitcoin on the daily chart is a pull-up after building a base. After a local pullback, it can provide short-term opportunities, but the price is at historical highs, so it is not advisable to chase upward points.
ETH
Ethereum formed a doji on the daily chart (as indicated by the white arrow in the image), and the closing of this formation is not ideal. If it cannot effectively break through the high of this candlestick in the future, this doji may become a key resistance level in the subsequent upward process. Although the trading volume increased on that day, the price only formed a doji, indicating significant divergence and intense competition between bulls and bears in this area. Whether the upward trend can continue depends on whether it can break through the pressure zone of this daily doji with increased volume.
Does Ethereum still have room for explosive growth?
Currently, the MACD of Ethereum on both the daily and weekly charts are in a golden cross state, and the gap is quite large, meaning the greater the difference between the blue line and the yellow line, the larger the increase will be. Looking long-term, in previous instances of golden crosses, Ethereum has always risen; what about this time?
From the short-term RSI (Relative Strength Index) perspective, Ethereum's recent surge has been too rapid and is close to the overbought zone. Technically, $3000 is an important integer resistance level, while $3100 corresponds to the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. There is significant pressure for a correction in the short term. Therefore, when the price approaches $3000 or at the latest near $3100, it is advisable to consider taking profits and waiting for a more suitable entry opportunity.
If we look at a total of 25 indicators: 3 indicators are bearish, 7 are neutral, and 15 are bullish, so overall, Ethereum is bullish.
Breaking it down: The oscillation indicator on the left is relatively neutral and slightly bearish, mainly because, as mentioned earlier, it has risen too much recently and may need to retest, while the long-term moving average indicators on the right are all bullish.
Therefore, Ethereum may need to retest in the short term before continuing to rise.
Altcoins
Yesterday, when Bitcoin and Ethereum broke through, I reminded everyone in the article to position yourself in SOL, PEPE, PENGU, and XVG. Those who followed Sponge have benefited from this altcoin rebound.
If the market turns, Sponge will be the first to post a message in the group, posting a reminder to enter long at the current price of 111,000. If it falls below 110,000, the lowest point reached was only 110,400. As of now, the highest point is around 118,800, capturing a profit of six to seven thousand points. This wave has been a profitable surge!
Let me mention a few coins.
PNUT: It is possible that PNUT will retest and could be bought low around 0.25. Once the squirrel confirms support after the retest, it may start a new round of explosive market behavior.
JTO: JTO can continue to be bought low; there are no issues with the current trend, and a rebound may come at any time, so be patient.
PEPE: PEPE's recent performance has been very strong. If there is an opportunity to retest around 11, it can be bought low. For now, just hold your coins with peace of mind.
DOGE: Currently, DOGE is normally consuming a selling pressure of 0.2-0.21. Once this selling pressure is exhausted, DOGE will have an explosive trend.
SOL: There hasn't been much change in the SOL trend. It still shows a bullish breakout trend, just a bit slower in its rise, but moving steadily. Hold your coins with peace of mind and wait for the approval of the spot ETF.
Next Tuesday will be a turning point — the U.S. will announce June's CPI data.
If the CPI is higher than expected, it may shake the market's mainstream expectation of 'two interest rate cuts within the year.' The Fed will also lean towards maintaining a wait-and-see attitude, waiting for more data guidance. Conversely, if the inflation data is lower than expected, the probability of a rate cut in July may significantly increase, and the market's bets on loose policies will also strengthen accordingly.
This is destined to be a true showdown between Trump and Powell. Who is the master of interest rates? Who has a deeper understanding of inflation? Unfortunately, according to economists' predictions, both the month-on-month and year-on-year growth rates of CPI may exceed previous values, which is a bad signal.
Operational strategy: If the CPI data is bearish and causes Bitcoin's rise to face obstacles and a pullback occurs, I will consider participating in the rebound opportunity after the adjustment; if the data is bullish, and the market continues to be strong, and Bitcoin successfully breaks through key positions, then the priority will be to position in small coins for a short-term rebound, operating in the trend to enjoy the upward dividends.
