Whether ETH can break through the key resistance level of $3000 in one go still carries considerable uncertainty, and needs to be judged from multiple dimensions:

1. Technical Analysis: The key resistance area has not been effectively broken.

1. Short-term resistance: Currently, ETH faces strong resistance near $2879. If bulls cannot effectively break through, it may pull back to the 20-day EMA ($2561) or even lower.

2. Pattern verification: Although a 'bullish flag' has formed on the daily chart, it needs to stabilize above the support level of $2470 to continue rising; otherwise, it may drop to $2300.

3. Psychological level: $3000 is not only a round number but also a key resistance since 2022, with multiple historical attempts failing.

2. On-chain data and fund movement.

- Selling pressure risk: There is about $384 million of sell orders near $3000, and a large number of positions are concentrated in the $2800-$2900 range. A failure to break through may trigger profit-taking.

- Fund inflow: If spot Ethereum ETFs continue to attract institutional funds, or if the Pectra upgrade brings new demand, it may provide the momentum for a breakout.

3. Market environment and related assets.

- Bitcoin correlation: If BTC retraces after breaking $120,000, ETH may face pressure; conversely, if BTC continues to rise, ETH may follow and attempt to hit $3500.

- Macroeconomic factors: The Federal Reserve's interest rate policy and changes in global liquidity will influence risk asset preferences; the current tightening cycle may restrain the breakout potential.

4. Scenario simulation

Scenario Conditions Probability Subsequent Targets

Direct breakthrough requires stabilizing above $3000 with increased volume and accelerated inflow of ETF funds; 40% chance of rising to $3200→$3600→$4100.

Repeatedly hindered at $2879 with multiple failed attempts; 50% chance of returning to a consolidation range of $2400-$2750.

Deep correction: A drop below the key support of $2450; 10% chance of falling to $2300→$2000.

Conclusion

Short-term (1-2 weeks): ETH needs to effectively break through $2879 and stabilize; otherwise, $3000 remains a 'mirage'.

Mid-term (3-6 months): If it remains above $2550 and BTC does not turn bearish, the probability of breaking through $3000 rises to over 60%.

Investors are advised to pay attention to the outcome of the $2879 contest and ETF fund flows, and to be wary of rapid pullbacks after false breakouts before a breakout.