Talking about BTC breaking 110,000, my views on the altcoin season

Recently, there has been a lot of discussion about the topic of altcoin season. Some say that the altcoin season is over and BTC will become the main theme; others believe that altcoins will eventually rotate, just that the time has not come yet. My viewpoint is clear: altcoin season will not disappear, and the next round will still be crazy.

The reasons are not complicated, summarized as a few points of logic:

1. The anti-human cycle of collective behavior

In the past few cycles, the market has actually been repeating one thing: retail investors like to summarize, but once they summarize too much, it becomes dogma.

In 2017, Bitcoin and altcoins soared together, but in 2018, altcoins plummeted to zero; many people suffered losses and then turned to only invest in BTC.

As a result, in the bull market of 2021, a bunch of altcoins soared several times from the bottom, and although BTC also rose, it was nothing compared to the altcoins.

So the lesson flipped again, and this round, many people preemptively positioned in altcoins, wanting to be “diamond hands.” Now it seems that most people have held through an entire round of the altcoin bear market; BTC has reached new highs while altcoins are still lying flat.

Therefore, I believe that when the next round comes, it is highly likely that the consensus will again become “only buying BTC is safe.” And when the market consensus is unified, it is often the easiest time for things to go in the opposite direction.

2. A real bull market never has only one coin rising

Although BTC has already seen several times in growth, the market has not yet been ignited; the enthusiasm is limited, and new users have not entered on a large scale.

A truly crazy market often begins with the illusion of “everyone getting rich,” discussions increasing, and the profit effect spreading, where any coin can multiply three to five times.

We are still far from this stage. This wave of BTC rising alone is actually a product of existing stock games — it’s not that the market doesn’t want to hype altcoins, it’s just that the time for the engine to ignite hasn’t arrived yet.

3. The capital cycle of project parties has been reset

Don’t forget, the crypto market is not only a game of retail investors, but also a theater for project parties and capital. In the past two years, many altcoins have gone to zero, and the project parties have recovered their chips, lowering the cost of control.

The current structure is very suitable for the next round of market-making. Even using just a few hundred thousand dollars, it can create a trend of tens of millions of dollars on a low circulation basis; once it starts, retail investors will chase highs and cut losses as in the past.