#BTC Bitcoin surged strongly past the $113,800 mark last night and continued to climb, reaching a high of $117,400 this morning, driving the entire cryptocurrency market to rise. The Big C team combines on-chain data and institutional trends to deeply analyze the logic behind this market cycle and future trends.
1. Market Status: A raging bull market is underway.
Price Performance: Soared from $113,800 to $117,400 within 24 hours, with a daily increase of over 3%. Contract Market: Total liquidations in perpetual contracts reached $1.13 billion, with short liquidations accounting for nearly 90% (over $1 billion). Altcoins followed suit: Ethereum broke through $2,600, with mainstream altcoins like SOL and DOGE generally rising over 5%.
2. Core Drivers: Institutional Capital Flow
ETF Fund Scale: Since July, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have accumulated inflows exceeding $50 billion, with BlackRock's IBIT single fund reaching $76 billion. On-chain data confirms: Bitcoin's market capitalization increased by $4.4 billion in a single day, indicating real capital inflows, and exchange inventories have dropped to 2.3 million, a three-year low.
Policy Favorability: The Trump administration promotes a 'National Strategic Cryptocurrency Reserve', and the U.S. will review three pro-cryptocurrency bills next week.
3. Key Technical Signals
Short-term Goal: CryptoQuant model shows that when MVRV reaches 2.75, it corresponds to $130,900; breaking through $118,000 will open up space towards $150,000.
Risk Warning: Long-term holders (LTH) have an average profit of 215%; when profits exceed 300% (corresponding to $137,600), it may trigger large-scale selling.
4. Divergence in Institutional Views
Optimistic Note: Milk Road founder predicts a target price of $150,000, GSR analysts believe ETF demand will continue to support prices.
Cautious Note: Ledn's Chief Investment Officer warns of increased selling pressure at high levels, CryptoQuant alerts to monitor LTH selling thresholds.
5. Operational Suggestions
Spot Suggestions: Accumulate in batches below $115,000; if it breaks through $120,000, consider buying on the rise, with stop-loss set at the $108,000 support level.
Contract Warning: Leverage should be controlled within 50 times, avoid trading during high volatility periods, closely monitor liquidation data.
Key Observations: U.S. cryptocurrency policy trends for the week (7.14-7.18), changes in institutional holdings (especially Grayscale and BlackRock), signals for long-term holders (LTH) to take profits.
Big C's Exclusive Viewpoint:
The current bull market is distinctly led by institutions, contrasting fundamentally with the retail-driven market of 2021. Recommendations for investors:
Focus on spot positions, reduce contract speculation, pay attention to leading projects during the policy dividend period, set strict profit-taking and stop-loss levels, and avoid becoming a backdrop for 'get-rich-quick stories.'
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