BTC reaches a new high of $116,000, what are the reasons? Shorts faced a liquidation of $760 million in a single day!
Amid the ever-changing landscape of cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin has once again become the center of global attention. Today, BTC prices have strongly broken through $116,000, setting a new historical high, while shorts faced a liquidation of $760 million in a single day, causing a stir in the market. What secrets lie behind this crazy market? Will Bitcoin prices really soar to $150,000 in the short term?
1. Breaking new highs, shorts are wiped out
In July's cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin shines like a dazzling star, with its price climbing steadily. Following a record set the previous day, Bitcoin continued its strong performance on Thursday, rising over 4.45% and breaking through the $116,000 mark, continually refreshing its historical highs, even touching $117,000 at one point.
This strong rally in Bitcoin has dealt a heavy blow to the shorts. According to Coinglass data, on Thursday afternoon US time, after Bitcoin broke through $116,000, shorts accelerated their liquidation, with the amount cleared in the past hour reaching $543 million, and $762 million in the past 12 hours. When traders use leverage to short Bitcoin while its price continues to rise, they have to buy back Bitcoin from the market to cover their positions, which further drives up the price of Bitcoin, creating a vicious cycle that forces more short positions to be liquidated, resulting in a 'bloodbath' in the market.
2. Multi-factor resonance drives soaring coin prices
(1) Institutional entry, capital influx
Currently, the main buyers of Bitcoin have gradually shifted from early retail investors to large publicly traded companies and asset management institutions. These institutions are including Bitcoin in their asset allocation strategy, leveraging ETF products, treasury reserves, and direct market allocations to create a collective force that leads to a substantial shift in Bitcoin's price center. In the asset allocation logic of institutions, Bitcoin is assigned dual attributes reminiscent of gold or technology growth stocks, serving both as a hedge against fiat currency depreciation and long-term budget deficit pressures, and as a long-term chip for betting on future payment and value calculation systems.
For example, by the end of the first quarter of this year, the well-known software company MicroStrategy had already held over $50 billion in Bitcoin, and the ongoing buying behavior of institutions has had a profound impact on the market. Institutional trading company GSR stated that institutions are continuing to buy heavily through Bitcoin ETFs, with demand increasing and performance remaining stable. Since the beginning of this year, net inflows into ETFs have exceeded $4 billion, and the massive influx of capital has provided a solid financial basis for the rise in Bitcoin prices.
(2) The 'catalysis' of the macroeconomic environment
1. Shift in monetary policy expectations: The Federal Reserve's monetary policy has entered a phase of easing expectations, with the market anticipating more liquidity to flow into the cryptocurrency market. The latest minutes from the Federal Reserve released signals of interest rate cuts within the year, significantly enhancing expectations for liquidity easing. In this situation, investors are actively seeking new investment opportunities, and Bitcoin, as an asset with unique properties, has attracted a massive influx of capital. The lower interest rate environment reduces the opportunity cost of holding Bitcoin, making it more attractive to investors.
2. The failure of traditional hedging models: Although the Federal Reserve maintains a wait-and-see policy, the market still holds a moderate expectation for interest rate adjustments within the year, and the flattening of the real interest rate curve weakens the dollar's attractiveness, favoring risk assets priced in dollars. The failure of traditional hedging models has led to a re-concentration of capital towards assets that are difficult to anchor in valuation but have liquidity and growth narratives. In this round of increases, Bitcoin has gradually established a correlation with traditional macro variables, no longer purely fluctuating as a digital asset, but becoming part of the global liquidity landscape and risk exposure adjustments. This change in status provides continuous price support for its high-level fluctuations.
(3) The 'stabilizer' of regulatory policies
The GENIUS Act (stablecoin act) promoted by the United States has brought a clearer regulatory framework to the cryptocurrency market, enhancing market confidence. For a long time, regulatory uncertainty has been a major obstacle to the development of the cryptocurrency market. The promotion of this stablecoin act has shown market participants the determination of regulatory agencies to recognize and regulate the cryptocurrency market. A clear regulatory framework has made investors more confident about the future development of the cryptocurrency market, attracting more capital into the market. When the market feels assured about the regulatory environment, investors are more willing to invest, driving up Bitcoin prices.
(4) The 'dual drive' of market sentiment and technical trends
From the perspective of market sentiment, the continuous rise in Bitcoin prices has stimulated investor enthusiasm and optimism, forming a positive feedback mechanism. More and more investors are attracted by the market's profit-making effects and are flocking in to buy Bitcoin, further pushing up prices.
From a technical perspective, since the end of May, Bitcoin prices have continued strongly, with technical indicators such as RSI (Relative Strength Index) not showing serious overbought signals, and the moving average system displaying a bullish arrangement, indicating a healthy trend with continuity. This good technical trend provides buying signals for investors and boosts market confidence. Technical analysis is widely used in the cryptocurrency market, and when technical indicators show positive signals, investors are often more motivated to trade.
3. Is a target of $150,000 achievable?
From the historical trends of Bitcoin and the current market situation, it is not impossible for Bitcoin prices to soar to $150,000 in the short term.
Financial author David Zanoni stated that the number of days in the Bitcoin halving cycle is relatively stable. In the previous two cycles, the time span from the bottom to the top of Bitcoin's price was 1,064 days; the first cycle was slightly longer, lasting 1,148 days. This cycle will reach 1,064 days by October 2025, so this round of bullish market may still have further upward space. From the weekly chart of Bitcoin, the prices in April and May showed a clear upward trend, and recent price movements also corroborate this possibility.
Zanoni still maintains that the price target for this round of Bitcoin is ten times the bottom price of the cycle, which is $15,000 multiplied by ten, with an expected peak price around $150,000. This target is based on the 2.618 Fibonacci level, and compared to the current price, this prediction is reasonably justified. During the parabolic rise phase of the Bitcoin halving cycle, the strongest upward momentum often occurs, marking the acceleration phase within the cycle, with the flagpole of the bullish flag pattern also forming during this period. If this cycle's duration is similar to the previous two cycles, then April could be the starting month of this potential parabolic rise phase. If the rise continues for six months, it will extend until September 2025, which aligns with the theory that this round of bullishness may end around October.
However, market trends are difficult to predict entirely, and Bitcoin prices face many risks and uncertainties. Although market sentiment is currently optimistic and technical trends are good, prices may struggle to break through the historical high of $109,000. If the price successfully stabilizes above this level, the possibility of Bitcoin entering a parabolic rise phase and reaching the target price of $150,000 by around October 2025 will significantly increase.
4. Risks and opportunities coexist
The significant volatility in Bitcoin prices brings both opportunities and substantial risks. For investors, while paying attention to Bitcoin price trends, it is also crucial to approach the situation rationally and manage risks appropriately.
On one hand, the rise in Bitcoin prices brings profit opportunities to investors. By investing in Bitcoin or related ETF products, investors may gain substantial returns in this market wave. However, on the other hand, the high volatility of the Bitcoin market also greatly increases investment risks. Bitcoin prices may experience significant corrections in the short term, leading to a substantial devaluation of investors' assets. Multiple factors such as global economic uncertainty, regulatory policy changes, movements of whale investors, and security issues of cryptocurrency assets (such as hacker attacks) may have a significant impact on Bitcoin prices.
Summary of this article:
In this cryptocurrency market full of opportunities and challenges, investors need to remain calm and rational, closely monitor market dynamics, and make cautious investment decisions based on their risk tolerance and investment goals. At the same time, continuous learning and understanding of knowledge related to the cryptocurrency market is necessary to improve investment levels to cope with market changes. The breakthrough of Bitcoin prices above $116,000 is the result of multiple factors working together, and whether it can reach $150,000 in the future still requires time for verification and further market development.
More detailed layouts are being monitored closely. For now, it is still advised to stay calm, avoid rash actions, let the market stabilize before making decisions, and definitely do not let yourself fall into a trap and become a target for capital harvesting, remember this!!#BTC再创新高 #美联储6月会议纪要
