📅 July 10, 2025 — According to the latest data from CME FedWatch, the U.S. Federal Reserve has a 93.3% probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in July. This decision could play a key role for global markets — including cryptocurrencies.
📊 What's happening?
Against the backdrop of slowing inflation and moderate economic growth, the Fed prefers not to rush into rate cuts. Despite market expectations, the probability of a rate cut in September has decreased to 28.1%, while the probability of maintaining the current level is 67.2%.
This approach signals that the Fed is not confident that inflation has been completely defeated.
⚡ Why is this important for crypto?
🔹 High rates = pressure on risk assets
The higher the interest rate, the more expensive money becomes, and the less liquidity investors have to buy Bitcoin, altcoins, and NFTs.
🔹 Crypto is "insurance" against fiat instability
But if inflation rises again, many will rush back to BTC as "digital gold."
🔹 The market has already begun to react
After the publication of the data, cryptocurrencies slightly decreased. For example, BTC is hovering around $113,000, and ETH has fallen below $2,800. Investors are waiting for clarity from Jerome Powell.
🔮 Predictions
👁🗨 If the rate remains high — a short-term downturn in the crypto market is possible.
📈 But if the Fed starts easing later this year — Bitcoin and top altcoins will get a new growth impulse.
🧠 Conclusion: Fed rates are the key to understanding the upcoming movement of crypto. Be careful, watch the regulator's comments, and don't forget — in such moments, the market especially loves surprises.
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