At 2 AM, the Federal Reserve kneels! Bitcoin surges 3% just as a start, shorts are collectively liquidated tonight! Were you hung on the tree last night?

What the market fears most is not bad news, but uncertainty - when the Federal Reserve and Trump's tariff hammer fall at the same time, Bitcoin tells the world with an $112,000 bullish line: the safe-haven property of cryptocurrencies is being redefined.

1. The "abnormal" logic of the early morning market: traditional risk assets and cryptocurrencies soar together.

At 2 AM Beijing time today, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of the June meeting. Although it kept interest rates unchanged, it removed the previous statement of "persistent inflation decline" and instead emphasized that "the uncertainty of the economic outlook has diminished but remains high." This is a hawkish signal and should, in theory, be negative for risk assets, but the three major U.S. stock indices collectively closed higher (Dow +0.49%, Nasdaq +0.94%), and Bitcoin broke through $112,000, reaching a historic high.

Key contradiction point:

The Federal Reserve's "vague statement": The minutes acknowledge sticky inflation but have not completely closed the window for interest rate cuts (the market still expects a more than 60% probability of a rate cut in September), this "expectation management" allows institutions to bet on the long-term logic of liquidity easing.

The "double-edged sword effect" of tariffs: Trump announced a 50% tariff on Brazil, which superficially is negative for emerging markets, but actually triggers a migration of funds from traditional markets to cryptocurrencies as a "safe haven" - the Brazilian real has plummeted 3% against the dollar, while the premium of Bitcoin on local exchanges in Brazil skyrocketed to 8%, indicating that local funds are hedging against currency depreciation risk through cryptocurrencies.

Case evidence:

In April 2025, when the U.S. imposed a 104% tariff on China, Bitcoin fell 7% in a single day, but then rebounded more than 15% within a week. At that time, the market was panicking about the "trade war dragging down the global economy", but ultimately found that the inflation expectations raised by tariffs actually strengthened Bitcoin's narrative as "digital gold".

The market this early morning is reminiscent of April: the initial tariff news triggered a brief sell-off, but as U.S. stocks stabilized, funds quickly flowed back into the crypto market - Coinglass data shows that from 3 AM to 6 AM, the number of open contracts for Bitcoin futures increased by 12%, indicating strong willingness from institutions to increase their positions. $BTC