#套利交易策略 2 AM, the Federal Reserve kneels! Bitcoin surges 3% just the beginning, shorts will collectively be liquidated tonight! Were you hanging on the tree last night?

What the market fears most is not bad news, but uncertainty—when the Federal Reserve and Trump's tariff stick strike simultaneously, Bitcoin tells the world with an $112,000 bullish candle: the safe-haven property of cryptocurrencies is being redefined."

1. The "abnormal" logic of the early morning market: traditional risk assets and cryptocurrencies soar together

At 2 AM Beijing time, the Federal Reserve released the June meeting minutes. Although it kept interest rates unchanged, it removed the previous statement of "persistent inflation decline" and instead emphasized that "the uncertainty of the economic outlook has decreased but remains high." This was originally a hawkish signal, which should have been bearish for risk assets, but the three major US stock indices collectively closed higher (Dow +0.49%, Nasdaq +0.94%), and Bitcoin broke through $112,000, setting a new historical high.

Key contradiction points:

The Federal Reserve's "ambiguous statement": The minutes acknowledged the stickiness of inflation but did not completely close the door on interest rate cuts (the market still expects a probability of over 60% for a rate cut in September), this kind of "expectation management" allows institutions to dare to bet on the long-term logic of liquidity easing.

The "double-edged sword effect" of tariffs: Trump announced a 50% tariff on Brazil, which superficially seems bearish for emerging markets, but actually triggered a migration of funds from traditional markets to cryptocurrencies as a "safe haven"—the Brazilian real plunged 3% against the dollar, while the premium rate of Bitcoin on local exchanges in Brazil soared to 8%, indicating that local funds are using cryptocurrencies to hedge against the risk of currency depreciation.

Case evidence:

In April 2025, when the US imposed a 104% tariff on China, Bitcoin once plummeted 7% in a single day, but rebounded over 15% within the following week. At that time, the market was panicking over "the trade war dragging down the global economy," but eventually discovered that the inflation expectations pushed up by tariffs actually reinforced the narrative of Bitcoin as "digital gold."

The early morning market today is strikingly similar to that in April: initial sell-off triggered by tariff news, but as the US stock market stabilized, funds quickly flowed back into the crypto market—Coinglass data shows that from 3 AM to 6 AM, the number of Bitcoin futures open contracts increased by 12%, indicating a strong willingness of institutions to increase positions.