At 2 AM on #BTC再创新高 , the Federal Reserve capitulated! Bitcoin surged 3% just as the beginning, and short sellers faced collective liquidation tonight! Were you hung on the tree last night?
What the market fears most is not bad news, but uncertainty—when the Federal Reserve and Trump's tariff hammer strike simultaneously, Bitcoin tells the world with an 112,000-dollar bullish candlestick: the safe-haven property of cryptocurrencies is being redefined."
1. The 'abnormal' logic of the early morning market: traditional risk assets and cryptocurrencies soar together
At 2 AM Beijing time today, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of the June meeting. Although it maintained interest rates, it removed the previous statement of 'inflation continuously declining' and instead emphasized that 'the uncertainty of the economic outlook has diminished but remains high.' This was originally a hawkish signal that should have been bearish for risk assets, but the three major U.S. stock indices collectively closed higher (Dow +0.49%, Nasdaq +0.94%), and Bitcoin broke through 112,000 dollars, setting a new historical high.
Key contradiction point:
The Federal Reserve's 'ambiguous statement': The minutes acknowledged inflation stickiness while not completely closing the door on interest rate cuts (the market still expects a probability of over 60% for a rate cut in September), this 'expectation management' allows institutions to bet on the long-term logic of liquidity easing.
The 'double-edged sword effect' of tariffs: Trump announced a 50% tariff on Brazil, which superficially is bearish for emerging markets, but in reality triggered a migration of funds from traditional markets to cryptocurrency 'safe havens'—the Brazilian real to U.S. dollar exchange rate plummeted by 3%, while the premium rate of Bitcoin on local Brazilian exchanges soared to 8%, showing that local funds are hedging against the depreciation risk of their currency through cryptocurrencies.
Case evidence:
In April 2025, when the U.S. imposed a 104% tariff on China, Bitcoin once fell 7% in a single day but rebounded over 15% within the following week. At that time, the market was panicking about 'the trade war dragging down the global economy,' but ultimately discovered: the inflation expectations raised by tariffs actually strengthened the narrative of Bitcoin as 'digital gold.'
The early morning market today is reminiscent of April: initial tariff news triggered a brief sell-off, but when U.S. stocks stabilized, funds quickly flowed back into the crypto market—Coinglass data shows that from 3 AM to 6 AM, the number of open contracts for Bitcoin futures increased by 12%, indicating strong willingness for institutions to increase their positions.
