#突破交易策略 #突破交易策略 The show begins! BTC long and short battle, who will be the first to be liquidated?
Current situation: BTC has reached a new high
BTC is currently at its peak, with 80% of the shorts being wiped out. Looking upwards, there are still a lot of shorts waiting to be "harvested" at 113,000, while looking downwards, there are large numbers of longs that may "liquidate" at 106,500.
Data speaks: The exchange's "harvesting plan"
Calculations show that the liquidation area for shorts above is greater than for longs below. What does this mean?
For example: It's like a fisherman finding a denser pile of fish upstream than downstream, so he would definitely choose to cast his net upstream. The exchanges are the same; the upper shorts are more lucrative, and the profit from going long and harvesting shorts is higher.
Key price points: Where is the lifeline?
Above 112800: The "nightmare point" for shorts, breaking through may trigger a chain liquidation.
Below 106,500: The "defensive line" for longs, losing this will trigger an avalanche of liquidations.
Real case review: Do you remember last year's incident when BTC plummeted from 28,000 to 25,000? It was triggered by hitting the densely packed liquidation zone for longs, resulting in a loss of 1 billion dollars in just a few hours!
The exchange's "business logic"
The simple and harsh truth: Exchanges are not charitable institutions; they will choose the direction with better profits. Current data shows that pushing up prices to harvest shorts is more "cost-effective" than crashing down to harvest longs.
Risk warning: Don't be fooled by the data!
However! The liquidation chart is just a "map" and not a "GPS navigation". Large funds can completely ignore this data, just as a giant ship can easily break through a fishing net.
A single tweet from Trump can instantly change BTC's face
Institutional funds can easily "reverse" liquidation logic
Market sentiment is more important than technical analysis
This analysis is like a weather forecast; it can be referenced but should not be solely relied upon.