In recent days, there has been a flurry of news about the public sale of PUMP @pumpdotfun.

My small group of friends are eager to try and are asking how much they can invest.

From a somewhat rational perspective, I would like to share my views, and I welcome everyone to correct me.

Public Sale Details:

Token Price: $0.004,

Total Supply: 1 trillion $PUMP,

Public Sale Supply: 15% (150 billion tokens),

Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV): $4 billion.

Multi-platform sales including Bitget/Bybit/Gate/Kraken/KuCoin/MEXC.

This means that if the public sale sells out completely, it will raise $600 million.

Is a $4 billion valuation high?

Objectively speaking, if PUMP's popularity can match that explosive phase from before, then a $4 billion valuation is not high at all given PUMP's earning potential at that time. The question is about PUMP's operations moving forward.

How to interpret the founder of PUMP saying that centralized exchanges are useless but still wants to issue tokens on centralized exchanges?

Because PUMP's sustained revenue generation capability has failed. From the recent decline in meme popularity and PUMP's continuous drop in income, it can be seen that PUMP is unable to change the current situation and can only seek to list on centralized exchanges.

Is it worth participating?

High popularity + large funds + multiple platforms definitely calls for participation. There may be price manipulation during the listing, and there is potential for arbitrage. Large whales have already opened short positions on HyperLiquid; whether they make a profit or get liquidated remains to be seen.

How much to participate?

The share of participation depends on everyone's risk tolerance. The probability of the opening price breaking below is relatively small, and the upper limit of the price increase is difficult to estimate, completely dependent on sentiment. It is also possible that the price might spike several times before a sell-off occurs.

Additionally, the contracts will be listed simultaneously, and there could even be a situation where too many shorts lead to a price squeeze.

These factors cannot be predicted; too much capital is involved, like a giant Verdun meat grinder, completely depending on how the operators manipulate it for higher returns.

How to participate?

The official website requires KYC: connect your SOL wallet and submit your ID to get through.

The three exchanges are well-known, just prepare your accounts and funds.