BTC Hits All-Time High, Can the Uptrend Continue?

Bitcoin broke its previous high at the end of the U.S. stock market on July 9, refreshing its all-time high to nearly $112,000 per coin, with an intraday increase of nearly 3%. This breakthrough was driven by multiple factors, and there is a certain possibility for future growth:

1. Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations Provide Support

The minutes from the Federal Reserve's June meeting show internal divisions, but most participants believe that a rate cut may be appropriate this year, enhancing market expectations for future liquidity easing, which is favorable for risk assets like Bitcoin.

1. Mainstream Camp: Most believe that a rate cut may be possible this year, but exclude an immediate cut in July, needing to wait for clearer inflation and economic outlooks.

2. Hawkish Camp: A minority believes that a rate cut should not occur this year, as inflation data still exceeds the 2% target.

3. Dovish Camp: A minority is willing to consider a rate cut at the next meeting if the data meets expectations.

2. Long-Term Holders Firmly Maintain Positions

1. The total amount of Bitcoin held by long-term holders accounts for 74% of the total supply, indicating their strong belief in the market and providing support.

2. Since July 2024, the balance of Bitcoin on exchanges has steadily decreased, with investors tending to hold long-term, reducing market selling pressure. If history repeats itself, there may be further space for a bull market.

3. Technical Indicators Show Upward Potential

1. Bitcoin is in a clear upward channel, highly consistent with the Fibonacci channel since 2013. The top of the “bull flag” has converted into a support level, which is a strong bullish signal, with prices consistently above the 50-day simple moving average.

2. Analysts predict that the breakout of the “bull flag” technically points to a target price of $168,500; if it follows the fractal pattern with M2 money supply, a parabolic rise may occur after the consolidation period ends; the current cycle is similar to the bull markets of 2017 and 2021, and there may be huge upward potential; if it follows the 2020 pattern, prices may peak in October.

In summary, macroeconomic positives, institutional adoption, and companies accumulating Bitcoin resonate to push Bitcoin to new highs, with long-term holders firmly positioned. From a market momentum perspective, there may be stronger growth in the second half of the year.