The Federal Reserve released the minutes of the meeting early in the morning, signaling a possible interest rate cut in July, rapidly increasing market risk appetite. Bitcoin broke through the consolidation range and reached a new historical high, catching the shorts off guard.
In the past 24 hours, 114,087 traders globally have been liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $528 million, of which the short position liquidation amount reached $464 million, far exceeding the long position's $64.26 million, indicating a 'brutal defeat for the shorts, with a complete rout'.
BTC
Last night, under the backdrop of the Federal Reserve releasing dovish signals and the Nasdaq and S&P hitting historical highs again, Bitcoin surged to $112,000 and set a new high. However, this position is quite similar to last year's 'hard top' at $72,000 — it seems like a 'last step' at first glance, but to truly stabilize, a huge trading volume and emotional support are needed.
From a structural perspective, last night's行情 was more driven by news, lacking intrinsic momentum. The market's own consolidation rhythm has not yet been completed, so chasing long positions at this point is unwise, especially not suitable for heavy positions.
Currently, Bitcoin's position is already relatively high, and there is a possibility of profit-taking and triggering arbitrage sell-offs. If concentrated selling occurs, it can easily form a 'high position lockup' situation, and those chasing highs may have to endure a long period of pullback pressure.
My strategy remains: high sell low buy within a large range, mainly doing wave trading, waiting for actual favorable developments to consider adding positions in the trend.
Many friends ask me if it is possible to short now? My view is that it is possible, but one needs to control the rhythm and risk. Although Bitcoin's long-term trend still leans bullish, it often does not break through easily at such key resistance levels, technically providing better short opportunities. As long as low leverage is used, stop-loss settings are in place, and psychological preparations are made, such high-position short trades can actually be controllable in risk and not low in profitability.
ETH
Ethereum's trend continues to be strong, with a nearly 200-point increase last night, and the price is close to the phase high. Current upward momentum remains abundant, with a likelihood of breaking through the previous high formed on June 11.
From a structural perspective, ETH is at a key boundary between bulls and bears — it has been suppressed multiple times at this position (red line) in the last two months, and each time it surged, it was quickly knocked back. After sufficient oscillation and accumulation since the rebound from the bottom, the probability of breaking through is significantly higher than before.
However, in the short term, it is still somewhat difficult to break through the strong resistance zone of $3100-$3370 at once. We need to observe whether the bulls can continue to increase their volume or wait for more clear favorable conditions.
Altcoins
Once Ethereum surges, altcoins will welcome a reversal and explosive行情. ETH rising - gas fees increasing - L2 demand rising - DeFi TVL growth - ecological coin rotation and compensatory rise. The following are the prioritized coins benefiting the most from the ETH sector:
1. L2 sector: op, arb, strk, metis
2. DeFi sector: uni, aave
3. LSD sector: ldo, ssv, ethfi
Once the Ethereum ecosystem starts to explode, the next sector to explode will be the Solana ecosystem. We will continue to update step by step, mainly focusing on whether ETH can successfully break and stabilize above this trend line to judge the future trend.
Today's wealth code: BONK PENGU PEPE
These three contracts have experienced capital fluctuations within 24H, and the capital fluctuations are all short-term opportunities; BONK PENGU PEPE are expected to rise.
$PENGU
$PENGU will continue to soar if it stabilizes at 0.0161. After two strong washouts of the W bottom, the contract positions and floating chips have been cleaned up very well. A bit of chips has been released near 0.016, and if there is a pullback, buy in; it's expected to soar to above 0.017.
BONK
The enthusiasm for Pump.fun's TGE unexpectedly became a strong catalyst for the rise of $BONK.
Currently, the valuation of PUMP has reached $4 billion, while the total market capitalization of $BONK is still less than $2 billion. In terms of valuation comparison, $BONK undoubtedly has more cost-effectiveness and investment attractiveness. As the TGE enthusiasm continues to rise, more and more funds are beginning to turn to the more reasonably valued and market-consensus $BONK.
In addition, LetsBonk itself has a good fundamental outlook and high growth potential, and the probability of $BONK hitting previous highs is continuously increasing.
PEPE
The leading meme series in this round of行情 cannot perform poorly; PEPE should break through today! This is a textbook accumulation pattern.
