According to comments cited in an online discussion summary by (Investment Express), economist Hong Hao predicts that the market value of stablecoins is expected to surpass $1 trillion in the short term.
Hong Hao is a managing partner at Lotus Asset Management. He stated that the overall market size of stablecoins is still relatively small, but with more and more companies entering the field, rapid expansion is expected.
Hong Kong Dollar Stablecoin vs US Dollar Stablecoin
Hong Hao pointed out that most stablecoins issued in Hong Kong are likely to be pegged to the Hong Kong dollar rather than backed by US Treasury bonds, citing the Hong Kong Monetary Authority's strong foreign exchange reserves as evidence.
"Stablecoins issued in Hong Kong may be more stable than those in the US," Hong Hao stated, emphasizing Hong Kong's advantages in regulatory transparency and resource foundation. He added that although several Chinese tech companies have obtained licenses to issue stablecoins, many market participants are still developing specific operational models.
Hong Hao also noted that the structure of the stablecoin market might increase demand for US Treasury bonds, but future capital flows will still depend on the fiscal situation of the US government.
He specifically mentioned past issues with US stablecoins, such as the USDC de-pegging incident, arguing that the US regulatory system is still immature. He compared this with Hong Kong's licensing system and currency peg mechanism, suggesting that Hong Kong's model may offer greater reliability in the long run.
"There have been multiple collapse incidents in the US system," he said, "it is not mature enough and not completely safe." He emphasized that although the US dollar is dominant in the early issuance stage of stablecoins, other currencies may become reserve anchors in the future, such as gold, Swiss francs, or British pounds.
Cross-border Trade in Global Competition
When discussing cross-border trade, Hong Hao pointed out that stablecoins can effectively reduce costs and speed up transaction times, especially for overseas companies dealing with China.
However, he also acknowledged the tension between efficiency gains and regulatory control. "The essence of stablecoins is decentralized payment systems, and this requires regulators to maintain a high level of attention," he said.
Hong Hao emphasized that the active development of stablecoins currently represents a long-term structural shift in the digital payment space, rather than a short-term trend. "The explosion of stablecoins has already begun, and their role in daily financial life will only grow," he stated.
Although global stablecoin policies are still gradually taking shape, the process of integrating them into the formal financial system will inevitably test the boundaries between sovereign control and private issuance. For jurisdictions like Hong Kong, the challenge lies in how to maintain effective regulation of currency without stifling the evolving cross-border digital payment infrastructure.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
What role might stablecoins play in China's trade strategy? He believes that stablecoins can lower transaction costs and processing times in cross-border trade, providing significant advantages for foreign entities trading with China.
Are there other reserve currencies that might play a role in stablecoins in the future? Hong Hao stated that besides the current US dollar-dominated pattern, assets such as gold, Swiss francs, or British pounds could also become reserve anchor assets for stablecoins in the future.
What are the main concerns of regulators regarding stablecoins? The decentralization of the payment system by stablecoins raises regulators' concerns about control, compliance, and systemic risk management.