The inflow/outflow ratio for Bitcoin has dropped to 2022 lows, and cumulative volume delta shows that short-selling pressure has failed to push prices down. Is it time for a rebound?
Key points:
The monthly outflow/inflow ratio for Bitcoin has dropped to 0.9, indicating a warming of long-term confidence and accumulation.
Despite aggressive short-selling pressure in the Binance derivatives market, BTC remains within a narrow range between $100,000 and $110,000.
Over 19,400 BTC have been transferred to institutional wallets, showing strategic positioning by long-term holders.
After breaking the $100,000 mark on May 8, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) has closed above this psychological level every day. Despite a dip to as low as $98,300 on June 22, this cryptocurrency remains close to new highs above $111,800.
While the drop to $100,000 is only a 9% retracement, one indicator suggests that the price range between $100,000 and $110,000 could become a new bottom range before Bitcoin enters a parabolic trend again in the second half of 2025.
Data from CryptoQuant shows that market activity points to a recovery of long-term confidence, with on-chain data indicating that outflows significantly exceed inflows. The monthly outflow/inflow ratio has dropped to 0.9, a level not seen since the end of the bear market in 2022, which historically indicates strong demand.
This ratio measures the balance of coin volume flowing in and out of exchanges, serving as a sentiment indicator. Readings below 1 indicate that investors are moving assets out of exchanges, typically reflecting accumulation behavior. Conversely, values above 1.05 have previously aligned with increased selling pressure and local market tops.
It is worth noting that this latest decline reflects the levels of December 2022, marking a macro bottom for Bitcoin around $15,500. That turning point was preceded by several months of increases, supporting the argument that low ratios typically signal price reversals.
The current dominance of outflows and the increased participation of long-term holders provide strong evidence for the formation of a structural bottom. If historical patterns hold, Bitcoin may be approaching a critical demand-driven turning point that could signal the beginning of its next bullish phase.
Bitcoin absorbs selling pressure from short sellers
Despite continuous selling pressure in the Binance derivatives market over the past 45 days, Bitcoin has still held steady within a narrow range of $100,000 to $110,000. Cumulative volume delta (CVD) data remains negative, indicating ongoing short-selling pressure from traders. However, the price has failed to decline further, suggesting that this liquidity is being absorbed, indicating accumulation.
This structural resilience may be reinforced by on-chain activity pointing to institutional movements. As crypto analyst Maartunn noted, approximately 19,400 BTC worth about $2.11 billion was transferred from dormant wallets to institutional-grade addresses on Tuesday (July 8). These coins had previously been inactive for three to seven years, highlighting the significance of this move.
Such transfers are typically not impulsive actions. These activities are usually related to strategic positioning, indicating that large entities may intervene when prices remain stable under visible short-term pressure.
Ongoing selling pressure, mild downward responses, and large-scale accumulation strengthen the argument for Bitcoin forming a bottom around $100,000. While short-term volatility may persist, potential buying, possibly from institutions, could make sharp pullbacks below this level increasingly unlikely.