With the policy green light on and giants flocking in, a war to rewrite the global financial landscape has quietly begun in Hong Kong.
The statement by Hong Kong Financial Services and the Treasury Bureau Secretary Paul Chan that "the goal is to issue stablecoin licenses within this year" instantly ignited the capital market. Cross-border payment and stablecoin concept stocks collectively rioted, Huafeng Microfiber soared more than 10% in a single day, and OSL Group rose sharply by 5% - the market cast a vote of confidence with real money.
More importantly, he revealed the subtext: the number of licenses will be strictly controlled at the "single digit" level, and the HKMA will release detailed regulatory guidelines on anti-money laundering this month15. Scarcity + certainty, the double benefits make the giants excited.
The battle for licenses: a life-and-death struggle for Internet giants
The smoke of war has already filled the air - when (the Stablecoin Regulations) were confirmed to take effect on August 1, Ant International quickly stated that "applications will be submitted as soon as possible after the relevant channels are opened." Ant Digits President Bian Zhuoqun even directly announced that the application process had been initiated and held multiple rounds of secret talks with regulators.
Ant Group has positioned Hong Kong as its global headquarters, and its cross-border payment and global treasury management strategies are deeply tied to stablecoins. The trinity layout of blockchain + AI + stablecoins is obviously the first battle for Ant International after its independent operation.
On the other side of the battlefield, Liu Peng, CEO of JD CoinChain Technology, personally took charge of the sandbox test. As one of the first three institutions to enter the HKMA's "sandbox", JD Stablecoin (JD-HKD) has advanced to the second phase of testing, and the actual test data of cross-border payment scenarios is amazing.
Winning in the sandbox is not a sure thing. Standard Chartered Bank (Hong Kong) joins hands with Anmi Group and Hong Kong Telecom to form a super-strong consortium of "finance + technology + communications", and Yuanbi Technology is backed by Hong Kong's local financial resources, forming a three-legged tripod. HKMA Chief Executive Eddie Yue gave a stern reminder: Sandbox participants do not necessarily mean they will be licensed.
Cross-border payment disruption war puts the traditional system on the line
Xu Zhengyu's speech directly pointed to the "killer application" of stablecoins - cross-border payments. Especially in areas where "local currency risks are high and financial systems are fragile", stablecoins can bypass the pain points of paralysis of traditional financial infrastructure.
JD.com’s sandbox test data reveals the potential of dimensionality reduction: the cost of a single cross-border payment in Southeast Asian durian trade dropped sharply from US$1,800 to US$3. After Middle Eastern traders adopted JD-HKD, the order volume surged by 320%, and the arrival time was reduced from 5 days to seconds.
The 1%-3% handling fee of traditional cross-border payments seems vulnerable in the face of stablecoins. In the Hong Kong bonded warehouse test, the settlement based on stablecoins increased the capital turnover efficiency by 15 times.
This is not just talk. Walmart and Amazon are reported to be plotting to issue their own stablecoins, and Expedia and airlines are discussing stablecoin plans internally - the global business infrastructure is undergoing an on-chain reconstruction.
Controversy and undercurrents, the harsh reality beneath the ideal
When the market is enthusiastic, calm people begin to burst the bubble. Qiao Yide, vice president of the Shanghai Development Research Foundation, pointed out sharply: The real cost of cross-border payment of stablecoins may be close to 1%, far from the advertised "nearly zero cost".
The cost breakdown is shocking: fiat currency exchange fees + on-chain gas fees (fluctuate with congestion) + stablecoin withdrawal costs + KYC/AML compliance costs + exchange rate fluctuation losses... The total of the entire process often reaches 0.8%~1%.
The deeper question lies in the nature of money. The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) report asserts that stablecoins cannot become the pillar of the future monetary system due to their lack of "singleness, flexibility and integrity".
The scarcity of Hong Kong licenses has led to chaos. According to industry insiders, more than 40 companies have announced that they are preparing to apply for the license, and law firms have contacted dozens of interested parties. Some companies are purely "hyping concepts for market value management" and actually have no technical accumulation9.
Future pattern deduction, Hong Kong's gamble and opportunities
The end of the competition for licenses is already looming: the first batch of licensees may not exceed 5, with Ant, JD.com, and Standard Chartered becoming the biggest favorites. Small and medium-sized institutions are basically out of the game, and what Hong Kong wants is "heavy players with substantial application scenarios."
Once it succeeds, the power will be amazing. It is estimated that the size of Hong Kong's stablecoin market will exceed US$50 billion in 2026, driving a surge of 30%-50% in orders for A-share cross-border payment companies.
The bigger chess game is the internationalization of the RMB. JD.com was revealed to be planning a "Belt and Road regional stable currency" to form a "dual track system of main internal and external" with the digital RMB7. Xu Zhengyu was even more relaxed: if an institution wants to issue a RMB stable currency, "it needs to discuss with relevant jurisdictions"1 - laying the groundwork for offshore RMB stable currencies.
The first crack is being torn in the trillion-dollar cross-border payment market. Outside the Hong Kong Monetary Authority's licensing office, Ant's technical team squatted all night with encrypted hard drives, JD.com's cross-border settlement sandbox data set new records every day, and Standard Chartered's bankers urgently redraw the global capital route map.
When a Shenzhen electronics factory obtained millions of dollars in financing in seconds through on-chain stablecoins, when a small Malaysian merchant used tokenized warehouse receipts to obtain an annualized loan of 3.5%, and traditional bank wire transfer orders were slowly heating up on the printer - this is not the future, but the real revolution happening in Hong Kong at this moment.
The direction of global currency flows is about to change.
The market is changing, the strong are teaming up! The top seats are open, only ambitious players can grab them!