Current Price and Trend
As of today, Ethereum's price is fluctuating narrowly in the range of $2,528-$2,577 (24-hour high $2,590, low $2,482), down slightly by 0.32% from yesterday. Although there was a significant rise last week that broke through $2,600, it has failed to form an effective breakout due to macro policy uncertainties (such as Trump's new tariff policy) and shrinking trading volume.
Technical Indicator Signals Divergence
1. Short-term Structure:
The 4-hour chart shows that the Bollinger Bands have begun to expand after narrowing, indicating that volatility may increase; MACD is close to a neutral crossover, RSI is at 56.2 (not overbought), and bullish and bearish momentum is temporarily balanced.
Key Moving Averages: The 20/50/100/200-day moving averages form a dense support zone at $2,497-$2,541, creating a bullish arrangement.
2. Derivatives Market:
The long-short ratio at Binance has reached 3.17 (favoring bulls), but the growth of open contracts is weak (only +5%), reflecting active leverage funds but insufficient new capital.
Market Sentiment and Capital Movements
Optimistic Factors:
Vitalik proposed EIP-7983 (Gas fee cap setting) to enhance network stability and boost long-term confidence.
US ETF funds continue to flow in (an increase of $148 million on July 3), with a total management scale of **$10.8 billion, indicating an inclination for institutional accumulation.
Whale addresses are active (for example, 0x1fc withdrew 1,900 ETH from Binance for staking), with an average cost of **$2,507, supporting the current price level.
Risk Signal:
Spot trading volume sharply decreased by 58.9%, social heat (dominance 8.96%) diverged from capital inflow, beware of the inflated sentiment of 'bullish but not buying'.
Binance exchange's ETH reserves have risen to 4.9 million coins (accounting for 4% of circulation), which may suppress prices if converted into selling pressure.
Future Trend Prediction
Short-term (24 hours): If it breaks through $2,600 with volume, it is expected to test $2,697 (R3 resistance); if it falls below the support at $2,514, it might pull back to the $2,475 area.
Catalyst:
Macroeconomic aspects: The Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes and the implementation of tariff policies (effective August 1).
On-chain aspects: Progress of gas reform, net inflow data from exchanges, and growth in L2 ecosystem TVL (such as Arbitrum).
Summary: ETH is in a phase of building momentum, with a bullish technical outlook but requiring new capital to drive it. Traders should pay attention to the validity of the $2,600 breakout, while conservative strategies could wait for volume signals or a backtest of support levels. If the divergence between sentiment and capital continues, beware of the risk of a 'dead cat bounce' type of pullback.
