$BTC Here’s a detailed analysis of **Bitcoin ($BTC)** as of **July 8, 2025**, incorporating price action, market sentiment, derivatives data, and macroeconomic influences:
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### **1. Current Price & Key Levels**
- **Spot Price (BTC-USD):** **$108,227** (-0.78% in 24h) .
- **Futures Price (BTC=F):** **$108,520** (+0.06%) .
- **Critical Levels:**
- **Support:** $107,000 (psychological level), $106,300 (fair value gap) .
- **Resistance:** $108,500 (50% Fibonacci retracement), $110,000 (ATH breakout threshold) .
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### **2. Market Sentiment & Derivatives Trends**
- **Bullish Options Activity:** Traders are accumulating **September $130,000 calls** on Deribit, betting on a Q3 rally .
- **Futures Shift:** Open interest rose **7% in 30 days**, with institutional net longs hitting **$27.4M**—a bullish signal .
- **Put/Call Ratio:** Dropped to **0.8**, favoring call options (bullish bias) .
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### **3. Macro Catalysts & Volatility Triggers**
- **Fed Minutes (Due July 10):** Potential market-moving insights on rate cuts .
- **Trade Tariffs:** Trump’s delayed tariffs (until Aug 1) eased immediate risk-off pressure, but **25% tariffs on Asia** loom .
- **Global Liquidity:** Money supply growth (**9% YoY**) historically precedes BTC rallies (e.g., 460% gains post-2020) .
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### **4. Technical Outlook**
- **Breakout Scenario:** A close above **$110,000** could target **$112,000** (near-term), then **$120,000** .
- **Cup & Handle Pattern:** Monthly chart suggests a **$230,000** target if the pattern completes .
- **NVT Indicator:** At **1.98** (below the 2.2 "top" threshold), room for upside remains .
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### **5. Risks & Correlations**
- **Equities Link:** BTC-S&P 500 correlation at **0.89** (near-perfect sync), decoupling from gold (-0.58) .
- **Whale Movements:** Dormant wallets moved **$8B in BTC**, but ETF inflows ($1.6B weekly) offset selling pressure .
- **Liquidity Test:** A dip below **$106,500** may trigger a sweep to **$104,200** before reversal .
