In a move that has raised serious concerns in Pakistan, India officially declared today that it will not restore the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) — a landmark agreement signed in 1960 that has governed the water-sharing of the Indus River system between the two nations for over six decades.

This announcement comes after India unilaterally suspended the treaty in April 2025 following a security incident in Kashmir. Now, its complete refusal to return to the treaty poses a significant threat to Pakistan’s water security, agriculture, and economy.

💧 Pakistan’s Dependence on the Indus System

Pakistan heavily relies on the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab rivers, which were allocated to it under the IWT. These rivers provide nearly 80% of the water used in Pakistan’s irrigated agriculture, supporting over 16 million hectares of farmland. Agriculture alone contributes around 25% to the national GDP, and millions of livelihoods are tied to this sector.

The sudden termination of the treaty endangers the sustainability of this entire system. Major Pakistani cities — including Lahore, Karachi, Multan, and Faisalabad — as well as critical hydropower projects like Tarbela and Mangla Dams, depend directly on these water flows.

⚠️ Limited Water Storage Capacity

Adding to the urgency, Pakistan’s water storage capacity is alarmingly low — only 14.4 million acre-feet, roughly 10% of the annual flow from these rivers. This means the country lacks sufficient reserves to cushion itself from any major disruption or reduction in river inflows, making it highly vulnerable to droughts and seasonal shortages.

📉 End of Data Sharing Increases Risk

Under the original terms of the IWT, India was obliged to share critical hydrological data with Pakistan, helping in flood forecasting, dam operations, and irrigation planning. With this data-sharing now halted, Pakistan has lost an essential tool for managing its water systems.

This was evident earlier in April and May 2025, when unnotified water releases by India caused sudden floods in parts of Pakistan, resulting in loss of crops and displacement of communities.

🕊️ A Call for International Intervention

India’s firm stance not to reinstate the treaty could turn a long-standing water-sharing framework into a flashpoint for regional instability. For Pakistan, this is no longer just a legal or diplomatic issue — it is about national survival, food security, and economic stability.

Pakistan hopes that the international community, especially the World Bank (the original broker of the treaty), the United Nations, and major global powers will step in to mediate and ensure that this vital agreement is respected and restored.

🚨 Conclusion

The collapse of the Indus Waters Treaty could have devastating consequences for Pakistan, affecting millions of people, threatening food production, and pushing a water-stressed country into deeper crisis. It is now more critical than ever for diplomatic channels to reopen and for peaceful, practical solutions to be pursued — before the region’s most precious resource becomes its most dangerous fault line.