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Analysts Warn: Expiring Trump Tariff Truce & Mideast Conflict May Push U.S. Summer CPI to 4% Bloomberg Economics analysts warn of a perfect storm for inflation as two critical risks converge: 1. Tariff Time Bomb • Trump-era tariff suspensions set to expire soon • Potential revival of reciprocal tariffs on $300B+ goods • Could disrupt global trade flows, reignite trade wars 2. Middle East Oil Shock • Escalating conflicts risk $130+/barrel oil (vs current ~$85) • Every $10 oil price rise adds 0.4% to U.S. CPI • Summer driving season may amplify gasoline price spikes Inflation Fallout Projected impacts: 🔥 CPI nearing 4% by August (vs current 3.3%) 🦅 Fed rate cuts delayed until December or 2025 📉 Consumer spending squeeze from dual energy/tariff hits Market Implications: • Energy stocks rallying preemptively • Treasury yields creeping higher • Fed watch tools now price just 1.25 cuts in 2024 The Big Picture: This presents policymakers with a trilemma—contain inflation, avoid recession, and manage election-year politics. With Trump proposing new tariffs and Biden limited on oil reserves, markets face heightened volatility ahead.
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Analysts Warn: Expiring Trump Tariff Truce & Mideast Conflict May Push U.S. Summer CPI to 4% Bloomberg Economics analysts warn of a perfect storm for inflation as two critical risks converge: 1. Tariff Time Bomb • Trump-era tariff suspensions set to expire soon • Potential revival of reciprocal tariffs on $300B+ goods • Could disrupt global trade flows, reignite trade wars 2. Middle East Oil Shock • Escalating conflicts risk $130+/barrel oil (vs current ~$85) • Every $10 oil price rise adds 0.4% to U.S. CPI • Summer driving season may amplify gasoline price spikes Inflation Fallout Projected impacts: 🔥 CPI nearing 4% by August (vs current 3.3%) 🦅 Fed rate cuts delayed until December or 2025 📉 Consumer spending squeeze from dual energy/tariff hits Market Implications: • Energy stocks rallying preemptively • Treasury yields creeping higher • Fed watch tools now price just 1.25 cuts in 2024 The Big Picture: This presents policymakers with a trilemma—contain inflation, avoid recession, and manage election-year politics. With Trump proposing new tariffs and Biden limited on oil reserves, markets face heightened volatility ahead.
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Analysts Warn: Expiring Trump Tariff Truce & Mideast Conflict May Push U.S. Summer CPI to 4% Bloomberg Economics analysts warn of a perfect storm for inflation as two critical risks converge: 1. Tariff Time Bomb • Trump-era tariff suspensions set to expire soon • Potential revival of reciprocal tariffs on $300B+ goods • Could disrupt global trade flows, reignite trade wars 2. Middle East Oil Shock • Escalating conflicts risk $130+/barrel oil (vs current ~$85) • Every $10 oil price rise adds 0.4% to U.S. CPI • Summer driving season may amplify gasoline price spikes Inflation Fallout Projected impacts: 🔥 CPI nearing 4% by August (vs current 3.3%) 🦅 Fed rate cuts delayed until December or 2025 📉 Consumer spending squeeze from dual energy/tariff hits Market Implications: • Energy stocks rallying preemptively • Treasury yields creeping higher • Fed watch tools now price just 1.25 cuts in 2024 The Big Picture: This presents policymakers with a trilemma—contain inflation, avoid recession, and manage election-year politics. With Trump proposing new tariffs and Biden limited on oil reserves, markets face heightened volatility ahead. #TrumpTariffs
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