⚠️ Warning from Morgan Stanley... Will the trade war return on July 9? Global investment bank Morgan Stanley has warned investors of an important day ahead: July 9. On this day, the temporary freeze on tariffs imposed by the US on certain countries ends. The majority expect an extension of the deadline, but Morgan Stanley sees surprises as likely—which could affect everything from stocks to cryptocurrencies.
What are the possible scenarios?
If the United States extends the temporary freeze on tariffs but with conditions, as expected in the base scenario, it is likely that the cryptocurrency markets will remain stable or move slightly positively. This scenario means that no radical changes will occur, which gives investors a temporary sense of confidence and reduces anxiety in the markets. Relative stability encourages traders—especially institutions—to stay in the market or even increase their exposure to digital assets. However, the continued imposition of a 10% tariff on countries like Japan and the European Union may put pressure on their currencies, thereby strengthening the US dollar, which could create reverse pressure on the price of Bitcoin due to the inverse relationship between the two.
If escalation occurs—meaning the US returns to imposing tariffs or raises them gradually—then we move to a more dangerous scenario. This type of decision surprises the markets and generates a state of fear, leading to what is known as "Risk-Off" behavior, where investors exit risky assets like cryptocurrencies and move towards safe assets like gold, the dollar, or bonds. In this context, we often witness a sharp decline in Bitcoin and altcoins, especially if the decision coincides with a rapid rise in the dollar index (DXY). This scene recalls what happened in 2018 during the escalation of the trade war between the US and China, when liquidity fled the digital market significantly, and prices dropped collectively.
If the US decides to take a more moderate step by reaching bilateral or regional settlements with some countries that involve limited tariff reductions, the impact on crypto will be positive, but lightly and temporarily. This type of solution gives the market signals that escalation is currently unlikely, opening the door for short waves of optimism and entering new trading positions, especially in altcoins. However, since these settlements do not change the essence of US trade policy, the impact is temporary, and may quickly fade if new signs of tensions or subsequent tariff decisions emerge.
Dates you need to watch
July 9 is the end of the temporary freeze—any change could shake the market immediately.
On August 1, the possibility of new tariffs on 12 countries (up to 70%). Vietnam succeeded in reducing the percentage from 46% to 20%, and the UK received an exemption from car tariffs.
Why is this topic economically important?
Any surprise from the US could slow economic growth to 1% in 2025-2026, and bring back fear to the markets. Cryptocurrencies, especially Bitcoin, are quickly affected by such tensions—especially if accompanied by a rise in the dollar.
In the end, the cryptocurrency market is no longer moving in isolation from global politics, but has become a very sensitive indicator of geopolitical fluctuations and major economic decisions. The rise of the dollar, changes in risk appetite, and signs of escalation in global trade are all factors that first impact crypto before anything else.
