The following is relevant information about ETH's consolidation and breakthrough around the $2500 mark:
Consolidation situation
- Price performance: ETH is consolidating around $2500, having attempted to breach this level multiple times without effectively holding. For instance, on July 1, it briefly surpassed $2500 before retreating to around $2470. In May, it also briefly reached $2600 after breaking $2500 but quickly fell back to the $2470-$2480 range.
- Market sentiment and trading volume: There is some divergence in the market within this price range, with opinions suggesting that ETH faces strong resistance at $2500, which may lead to a short-term pullback. At the same time, trading volume significantly increased as ETH approached $2500, mainly influenced by profit-taking and the existing supply in this price range.
Breakthrough expectations and basis
- Technical analysis: From a technical indicator perspective, ETH is consolidating around $2500, with some indicators showing potential momentum for a breakout. For instance, the MACD indicator in May showed a reduction in green bar values compared to the previous day, and the fast and slow lines have flattened, indicating a reversal pattern. Additionally, a bullish candlestick on the 4-hour level triggering a golden cross could also become a catalyst for a breakout.
- Market news and institutional trends: Some positive news and institutional movements have also supported ETH's breakthrough above $2500. For example, the SEC signaled that the Ethereum ETF might be approved as early as August, and the Grayscale ETHE fund premium surged to 28%, indicating signs of large capital inflows. Additionally, major announcements from companies like SharpLink Gaming and BTCS Inc. have boosted market sentiment.
Outlook for subsequent trends
- Bullish viewpoint: If ETH can effectively break through $2500 and hold, it may usher in a significant rally. Some analysts predict that with major adoption news, ETH prices could reach $3000, setting a new historical high. Moreover, there are views that ETH has entered a critical validation period after breaking the upper boundary of a descending channel; if it can hold above $2630, the likelihood of a continued short-term rebound increases significantly.
- Bearish viewpoint: There are also views suggesting that ETH faces strong resistance near $2500, which may lead to a short-term pullback. If ETH encounters resistance and falls back at $2500, caution is warranted regarding the risk of a pullback to the support level at $2545.