#马斯克计划成立美国党

📌 Analysis of Musk's establishment of the 'American Party'

Direct Trigger: The 'Great and Beautiful Act' signed by Trump cancels tax credits for electric vehicles, severely impacting Tesla's interests (expected annual loss of $1.2 billion), while the act increases U.S. debt by $5 trillion, provoking Musk's fierce opposition.

Characteristics:

Fiscal Conservatism: Opposes high government deficits, criticizes the 'substantive monopoly' of both parties, leading to 'the country going bankrupt due to waste and corruption.'

Future Industry Investment: Focuses on AI, space technology, biotechnology, etc., advocating for reduced regulation to promote innovation.

Target Group: Positions as '80% middle voters,' attracting tech personnel and young groups dissatisfied with both parties.

Challenges:

Institutional Barriers: The U.S. 'winner-takes-all' Electoral College system makes it difficult for third parties to gain seats (e.g., Perot received 19% of the popular vote in 1992 but zero electoral votes).

Legal Procedures: Establishing a national party requires certification from each state (e.g., California needs 1.1 million voter signatures), taking several years and potentially facing obstruction from both parties.

Political Resistance: Trump calls it 'derailed and out of control,' and the Republican Party has established a super PAC to counter it; scholars believe the new party may siphon off Republican votes, benefiting the Democratic Party in the short term.

Strategic Adjustment: Musk has postponed his presidential campaign, focusing on the 2026 midterm elections, planning to contest 2-3 Senate and 8-10 House seats to become a 'key minority' to balance controversial legislation.

Although the U.S. seems free, I personally believe the chances of the American Party's success are not very high, with relatively little short-term impact on web3.